Actual finance blog

March 31, 2008

Key economic report shows weakness

Filed under: online — Tags: , — Professor Besto @ 4:45 pm

Economic growth was nearly flat in the last three months of 2007, according to a government report released Thursday.

The Commerce Department’s final reading on gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity, grew at an annual rate of 0.6%, adjusted for inflation, in the fourth quarter. The reading was unchanged from the preliminary fourth-quarter reading and in line with economists’ expectations.

In the third quarter, the economy grew at an annual rate of 4.9%.

Gregory Miller, chief economist at Sun Trust Banks, thinks the downward trend is likely to continue in the first quarter.

"We now have an economy that has geared down," Miller said.

"The data we’ve got so far suggest that the GDP number for next quarter is likely to be negative," he added.

Many economists, including Miller, believe that the economy entered a recession in the last month of 2007, when the initial GDP estimate of 0.6% was released.

Thursday’s report is the latest in a string of troubling reports that indicate economic weakness cash advance in one hour.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department said orders to factories for big-ticket items fell sharply. And a report from the Census Bureau showed sales of new homes falling to their lowest level in 13 years.

Declines in the labor market have also contributed to the current softening in economic activity. However, a report released Thursday by the Labor Department found that new filings for unemployment benefits fell last week.

Overall, the anemic growth in the country’s GDP suggests that the economy is facing a prolonged period of contraction, Miller said.

"It’s going to be a while before we turn this around," he said. 

Source

March 29, 2008

Williams-Sonoma says it will miss the Street

Filed under: legal — Tags: , — Professor Besto @ 6:24 am

Home-furnishings retailer Williams-Sonoma Inc. said Thursday it expects fiscal 2008 earnings to come in below analysts’ estimates.

The company anticipates full-year net income in a range of $1.42 per share to $1.56 per share on revenue between $3.79 billion to $3.88 billion.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial predict a profit of $1.63 per share on sales of $3.95 billion. Estimates typically exclude one-time items.

Williams-Sonoma forecast first-quarter earnings in a range of break-even to 3 cents per share.

Consensus estimates put net income at 12 cents per share.

Chairman and Chief Executive Howard Lester said in a statement that Williams-Sonoma is taking a cautious stance for the year due to uncertain economic conditions no fax payday advance. Many sectors have struggled as consumers tighten spending due to the ongoing housing downturn, eroding credit, rising fuel costs and recession worries.

Williams-Sonoma (WSM) plans to add 29 new stores, with 12 for its West Elm unit, and expand or remodel an additional 20 stores. 

Source

March 27, 2008

AMR cancels flights, Delta begins new checks

Filed under: legal, management — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 5:54 pm

AMR Corp (AMR.N: Quote, Profile, Research), parent of American Airlines, took 80 planes out of service and canceled 300 flights on Wednesday after reinspecting wiring on MD-series aircraft, while Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) began similar checks on 133 planes, the carriers said.

It was unclear if there would be service disruptions on Thursday at American. Delta said some cancellations were expected but was not more specific.

Tim Wagner, a spokesman for American, said the reinspection at American was not related to any specific safety incident but to an industrywide safety audit launched last week by the Federal Aviation Administration. “This is related to the audit,” Wagner said.

The FAA audit is to assess airline compliance with agency directives, most of which require aircraft inspections.

Some in Congress have sharply criticized FAA oversight of its own orders and a system that allows airlines to self-report problems to regulators payday loans. Maintenance lapses by Southwest Airlines (LUV.N: Quote, Profile, Research) in 2006-07 that were revealed recently triggered the audit as well as investigations by Congress and the U.S. Transportation Department inspector general.

American began reinspections Tuesday night on nearly 300 MD-80 series aircraft. The narrow body planes are a workhorse at the carrier’s Dallas and Chicago hubs.

The checks assessed whether American followed all procedures of a 2006 FAA order to ensure that wiring for an auxiliary hydraulic pump was properly installed and secured.

The directive, affecting more than 730 aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet, was aimed at preventing electrical shorts that could trigger a fire in the wheel well, a copy of the order showed. 

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March 25, 2008

Yen and U.S. slump to put brakes on Japan auto growth

Filed under: news — Tags: , — Professor Besto @ 10:31 pm

The seemingly unstoppable profit machine that is the Japanese auto industry is about to come to a grinding halt.

The sector, led by Toyota Motor Co (7203.T: Quote, Profile, Research), Nissan Motor Corp (7201.T: Quote, Profile, Research) and Honda Motor Co (7267.T: Quote, Profile, Research), has managed to grow profits for seven straight years by expanding sales in overseas markets and steadily cutting production costs.

But a slide in profits looks increasingly likely in the next business year from April due to a slowing U.S. market, rising costs for steel and other materials, and the dollar’s tumble last week to a 13-year low against the yen.

Daiwa Institute of Research (DIR) estimates the combined operating profit of Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Suzuki Motor (7269.T: Quote, Profile, Research), Mazda Motor (7261.T: Quote, Profile, Research) and Fuji Heavy (7270.T: Quote, Profile, Research) would drop by about one-fifth if the dollar stays at 100 yen through the year.

“It would take a miracle to achieve higher profits with the dollar at 100 yen,” said DIR analyst Shingo Hayashi.

A stronger yen makes cars imported from Japan less competitive abroad while also slicing into profits made in the U.S pay day loan. when brought back to Japan.

The numbers at stake are not small. Every one-yen gain on the dollar cuts into Toyota’s operating profit by about 35 billion yen. So if the dollar settles at about 100 yen, Toyota could see more than $4 billion wiped away by currency fluctuations alone.

And the nightmare for Japan’s car makers does not end there. 

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March 24, 2008

The

Filed under: term — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 5:33 pm

He’s known from his cheesy TV commercials as "The Cashman" and "The Loan Arranger," but the parade of characters and oddballs trying to get through jeweller Russell Oliver’s locked double doors on Eglinton Ave. W. these days is no publicity stunt.

"Hello, do you have something to sell? Do you have gold?" he asks bewildered-looking customers at the entrance before they are allowed into the wacky Cashman’s world. He buzzes you in through the second door if you look and sound on the level.

Frankly some folks don’t, but with bullion on a bull run – despite last week’s dip from the recent $1,000 (U.S.) an ounce milestone – he knows it’s more lucrative to give people a shot at turning their gold into cash than it is to turn them away.

"I’m negotiable on everything. I’m flexible, and it’s brought me so much extra business," he says, noting that business has doubled in the last year as word spread that gold was inching up.

"It’s ridiculously busy," Oliver cheerfully boasts in his trademark South African accent. "It used to be that Christmas was the crazy time in the jewellery world, but this February and March has been like Christmas for me."

Surprisingly, there isn’t one piece of jewellery for sale in the place, located just west of Avenue Rd. The felt-lined glass display cases are empty. That’s because Oliver, along with his eldest son Justin (jokingly nicknamed the "Cash Kid" for obvious reasons), only buys items now or loans money against them – like a pawn shop – finding it more profitable in the midst of boom times for precious metals.

"The ’80s and the mid-’90s were all about selling. People still come here thinking they can buy and they’re looking for a steal," says Justin, who also buys and sells to other jewellery dealers and is trying to establish a business in Miami.

Of course as a big-time buyer, his dad is trying to convince everyone that the gold price is heading further down, despite the fact that the trend is up. Some analysts say it will reach upwards of $2,000 in this metals cycle while gold investment guru Rob McEwen is even saying it could hit $5,000 in the next five years.

"It’s either going to go down or stay the same for a while. If it goes up too fast it always comes down," says Oliver, in a crystal ball-like prediction the day before gold went into a tailspin.

And after 40 years in the bling business, Oliver has seen and heard it all. Last Monday, just before the price of gold dipped 8 per cent, was no exception.

There were the couples who needed money to pay the mortgage, some people who inherited coins and jewellery, mothers with kids in strollers looking for diaper money, seniors with old dentures and gold teeth, competitors masquerading as customers, and even sad stories of life-threatening illnesses.

One 40-something man wearing a nearly new Rolex Yachtmaster makes the strange request for a $4,000 loan – all in 20-dollar bills – on his shiny steel and platinum watch in order to help out "a friend" who needs to refill an independently owned automatic teller machine of all things.

With an interest rate of 5 per cent a month on pawns, Oliver goes for it, and the lady at the cash window counts out piles of bills and takes the timepiece. Cashman says 90 per cent of people who want a loan will return for their items.

"It’s their stuff," he explains.

Linda Benns, whose husband recently died, drove in from Alliston to visit a sick relative in hospital and decided it was time to cash in her spouse’s 10-carat-gold bracelet that he bought on vacation in Martinique five years ago, along with some other trinkets she had that were collecting dust in a jewellery box.

"It’s no use to me, and gold is valuable now," she notes.

Another woman and her husband come in from Georgetown, explaining they want to go on vacation in Tuscany before he succumbs to a recent diagnosis of cirrhosis of the liver online payday loan. They dump two zip-lock bags full of gold jewellery – including a gold thimble with an amethyst tip, pocket watches and costume jewellery – on one of the trays and Oliver quickly sifts through it all.

He carefully studies it through the foldable magnifying glass hanging around his neck, making offers on some big chains and rings and tossing aside the gold-plated stuff with a line from Johnny Depp’s character in Donnie Brasco: "It’s a fugazi" – meaning it’s a fake.

"We spent our lives raising our children and sending them off to school, now it’s our turn to do something for us," explains Christy Graham.

"These sob stories are expensive for me, but I’m in a good mood today," says Oliver, sending the couple on their way with about $2,000, enough for the plane tickets to Italy.

Another guy comes in with close to $5,000 in loonie-sized, gold Iranian coins. He’s asked to return Saturday when the coin expert is in. Then a college student in jeans and a ski jacket produces a commemorative gold coin from the 1976 Montreal Olympics, saying he found it while he was spring cleaning.

"Take it easy, Cashman," he says, waving goodbye to Oliver after stuffing his wallet with a couple hundred dollars.

One man walks to the counter with a woman and yanks the diamond ring right off her ring finger, demanding to know what they’ll give him. Justin, the Cash Kid, regrettably has to tell them the diamond isn’t worth much because it’s brown and has a line in it, so they leave without a deal.

Then a cheerful elderly man and his wife dump a box full of stuff on to the tray, including his old dentures that have some gold fillings. But he didn’t have enough in the tooth department to translate into coin.

"Every day I get bars, bricks, coins, chains and teeth," Oliver says, laughing. "As you can see there’s a steady stream of people and we are not even a jewellery store anymore."

Later, when a woman unsuccessfully tries to push a stroller through the double doors, Justin goes outside to check out her necklace and bracelet. They do a cash deal right on the sidewalk.

"That’s what you call curb-side service," jokes the Cashman.

Oliver doesn’t mind wheeling and dealing on diamonds, platinum and palladium, but he’s mainly into gold, so much so that he’s thinking of changing his name to "GoldMan" so people get the point.

He doesn’t have much use for silver either.

With some of the questionable characters swinging by, Oliver is happy he’s not still in the sales business (see "A Gold Bug’s Life," left).

People come from far and wide to visit, thanks to the $10 million he’s spent on corny ads since 1995, including his latest with what he calls "sizzling hot" girls dancing in the background while he sings: "I’m the Cashman . . . Give you money for your gold."

"It’s paid off. The people don’t stop coming."

Adds son Justin: "I’m always amazed by how many people know him, from Muskoka to Miami. They even ask for his autograph."

"They quickly find out how accurate I am and how fast I am. It really only takes a matter of seconds to do a deal," notes Oliver.

Once he gets your gold, it’s quaintly separated in muffin tins by carat, from 10 to 24. Pure gold is 24 carats, and everything is weighed in grams. Then it’s sent off to the refiner where it gets melted into bars and bricks that eventually land in the market all over again.

He factors in a commission on sales of about 20 per cent. And don’t expect a receipt on a sale, but you must bring in some ID to prove you are at least 18 years of age.

At 60, Oliver’s living a comfortable life with his wife and dogs in a "nice house" that gold built in Rosedale.

"This has been the best year yet for the Cashman."

Source

March 22, 2008

CIT taps $7.3 billion credit line

Filed under: economics — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 10:48 pm

Commercial and consumer lender CIT Group Inc. said Thursday it tapped its $7.3 billion credit lines to repay debt and finance its commercial lending and is seeking additional funding sources as access to capital has dried up.

CIT Group said it cannot get capital from other sources amid continued deterioration of the credit markets. Aside from looking for new funding, CIT Group said it would also consider selling non-strategic assets and business lines to help raise cash.

Shares of CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500) tumbled in Thursday afternoon trading, falling $4.39, or 37.7%, to $7.25. Earlier in the session, shares hit a 52-week low of $6.75.

"Our decision today is a result of the protracted disruption in the capital markets as well as recent actions by the rating agencies," Jeffrey Peek, CIT Group’s chairman and chief executive, said in a statement.

Earlier this week, both Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s cut some of CIT Group’s credit ratings because of the company’s reduced financial flexibility due to the credit market turmoil. On Wednesday, Fitch Ratings put its ratings for CIT on review for possible downgrade.

Moody’s cut CIT Group’s issuer rating, while S&P cut its counterparty rating. Both the ratings remained investment grade.

In the past, CIT Group has relied heavily on unsecured funding for its operations, but because of credit market problems, has increasingly turned to secured financing options.

Both S&P and Moody’s said the increased use of secured funding weakens the relative position of unsecured creditors.

"Drawing down the bank lines would raise concerns about the company’s longer term viability," Kathleen Shanley, an analyst at independent bond research firm Gimme Credit LLC, said in a statement before CIT disclosed it would draw on its lines.

Like many other financial services firms, CIT Group has been hampered since the middle of 2007 with deterioration in the credit markets stemming from rising delinquencies and defaults among mortgages, especially subprime mortgages given to customers with poor credit history.

Last year, CIT Group shut down its mortgage lending operations, but still holds a portfolio of loans cash till payday. During the fourth quarter, the company set aside $385.5 million to cover bad mortgages.

CIT Group also created a separate $250 million reserve to cover losses in its home equity portfolio.

Moody’s said it will continue to review CIT Group’s operations for more potential downgrades, while S&P placed CIT Group on a negative outlook, which is a more long-term view. 

Source

March 20, 2008

NYC to probe if Bear Stearns deceived investors

Filed under: money, technology — Tags: , — Professor Besto @ 2:30 am

New York City’s comptroller, who helps oversee the city’s pension funds, on Tuesday said he will investigate whether the failure of Bear Stearns & Co was due to miscalculation or deception, which could trigger a lawsuit to recover losses.

The drop in Bear Stearns’ share price has resulted in a loss for the city’s public pension funds of about $10 million, City Comptroller William Thompson told Reuters in a phone interview.

“I think a lot of people are going to be taking a look. … Was there some deception in there or was this just a miscalculation?” Thompson, a Democrat, said when asked about a possible lawsuit against Bear Stearns.

Massachusetts on Monday had said it was reviewing whether to sue Bear Stearns to recover money it lost as a result of the plunge in the investment bank’s stock.

Bear Stearns’ market value fell after the bank on Sunday agreed to be bought by JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) at a price of $2 a share. On Friday Bear Stearns’ stock had closed at $30.85 payday loans online. The shares on Tuesday closed up 22.9 percent at $5.91, suggesting some were closing out short positions or believe the firm could fetch a higher price.

New York City’s pension fund has a long history of suing companies it believes defrauded investors. The $110 billion fund Thompson helps run is currently the lead plaintiff in a class-action suit against top U.S. mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

Thompson, a possible mayoral contender, said he does not believe Bear Stearns should be immediately kicked off the city underwriting teams.

“Bear had a very good municipal department,” which came up with some innovative ideas, he said. “It’s not just the firm, you also look at the personnel and the people who are there,” he said, noting JPMorgan also underwrites city debt. 

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March 18, 2008

Alitalia, Air France to merge

Filed under: news — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 9:42 pm

Alitalia’s board on Sunday unanimously accepted Air France-KLM’s bid valued at $1.1 billion in a move to save the struggling national carrier.

The Air France-KLM offer values the airline at $216 million, far less than expected, based on a share swap of 1 Air France share for every 160 Alitalia shares. The Franco-Dutch carrier also said it will pay $946 million for convertible shares.

The Franco-Dutch carrier says it will inject $1.56 billion in capital once the deal is complete.

Alitalia’s board issued a statement accepting the offer after a marathon meeting that went some 16 hours into early Sunday. Air France said it was "happy" with Alitalia’s decision.

Air France has said it wants to have union approval before the deal is finalized. It also must be approved by the Italian government, which is selling its 50% share, as well as the stock market regulator and EU competition authorities.

Air France said it expected to have necessary government and regulatory approvals within the first half of 2008.

Air France said it plans to relaunch Alitalia with an industrial and restructuring plan that will allow the Italian carrier "to rediscover the means of its development and to consolidate its status as a national leader." Alitalia will maintain its national identity within the Air France-KLM group, the carrier said in a statement.

The Franco-Dutch carrier said it expected to achieve operational profits in 2009.

Alitalia has been losing $1.56 million a day, and its cash reserves were down to just $439 million at the end of January, nearly a 25% drop from a month earlier.

The outgoing center-left government of Romano Prodi has been trying for more than a year to sell Alitalia fast cash advance. It’s decision to enter exclusive talks with Air France has been met with opposition by unions concerned about jobs and backers of Milan’s Malpensa airport, which would lose its status as a hub. Air France intends to maintain just one hub for Alitalia, at Rome’s Leonardo da Vinci airport.

Opposition leader Silvio Berlusconi, who is favored to win national elections next month, recently said he could accept an Air France-KLM purchase of Alitalia if the Italian carrier maintains its national identity, backing down from his opposition to the deal. 

Source

March 17, 2008

Serb-Kosovo trade hits hurdles, smuggling thrives

Filed under: marketing — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 8:48 am

The red box of the buttery ‘Plazma’ cookie, one of ex-Yugoslavia’s best-loved snacks, offers a quick introduction to the dilemma of businesses trapped in the political tussle between Serbia and Kosovo.

Belgrade, which vows never to accept the secession of the Albanian-majority territory, wants product labels to refer to Kosovo as part of Serbia, drawing on its constitution and on laws that ban “false advertising”.

Kosovo, however, insists that all products on sale in the new state must include details for the ‘Republic of Kosovo’, the name it took at its February 17 independence proclamation.

In a strange compromise, the Plazma box lists the cookie’s Kosovo distributor under the country section for Albania. It is a sign of the uncertainty and confusion that has cut the robust trade between Serbia and Kosovo by half in a single month.

“According to our figures, trade between Kosovo and Serbia dropped by 50 percent since February 17,” said Milovan Spasic of the Kosovo Chamber of Commerce, a Belgrade-based Serbian government office that treats Kosovo like any other province.

“The decline is due to uncertainty over how institutions on either side will react and what regulations will be introduced.”

Kosovo is recognized by 30 states, but its United Nations membership is blocked by Serbia’s ally Russia faxless payday loans. Meanwhile, firms either side of the border play cat-and-mouse with bureaucrats, or take the easy way out by smuggling.

In a rival “Kosovo Chamber of Commerce” in Kosovo’s capital Pristina, an official said Serbian goods were entering Kosovo 

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March 14, 2008

Wall Street and Washington share bailout idea

Filed under: marketing — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 5:57 pm

A mortgage bailout plan hatched between Wall Street and Congress is gaining political traction even though it could be on a crash-course with the Bush administration.

The plan would amount to a steroid boost for the Federal Housing Administration, a program conceived to help poor people buy homes that is now being used as a subprime mortgage lifeline.

Both Credit Suisse and Bank of America have mapped out how the FHA could gather up more shaky home loans and Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House of Representatives’ Financial Services Committee, on Thursday offered legislation to do just that.

Under those plans, the government would take failing mortgages off the hands of investors and write new terms that would prevent foreclosure.

The Frank bill is specifically aimed at borrowers who are distressed because the value of their home has dropped.

His legislation would see lenders write down the mortgage amount in exchange for a government guarantee the new loan would not fail payday loans. Lenders who have a choice between seizing a home or taking a hit on the loan amount could find the plan appealing.

The Frank plan was endorsed on Thursday by another key Democrat — Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd — but the Bush administration and congressional Republicans have signaled that they would not countenance a costly, investor bailout.

“I’m not surprised that the industry would support a government-backed solution but we are going to be watching the potential risk to the taxpayer,” said a senior Republican Senate aide, who asked not to be named. 

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