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Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, whose party’s five-decade rule oversaw a 41-fold jump in gross domestic product, may find past success doesn’t sell as well to younger voters in tomorrow’s election.
The People’s Action Party is facing the most contests for parliamentary seats since independence in 1965. PAP members will likely keep a majority at a time of record economic growth, according to Pearlyn Wong, an investment analyst in Singapore at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which manages about $262 billion. At the same time, a decline in the share of the popular vote may spur the next PAP government to lean toward opposition concerns.
Singapore’s success has fueled wider income inequality, with the world’s highest share of dollar-millionaire households contributing to pressure on property and consumer prices. The opposition has called for more limits on the influx of foreign workers that make up the majority of construction and shipyard employees, and urged further steps to contain home prices.
“The PAP has to be mindful of and adapt to the new generation of voters who demonstrate a ‘papa don’t preach’ mentality,” said Eugene Tan, assistant professor of law at the Singapore Management University. “A relatively poor showing at the general election would certainly get the PAP back to the drawing board not just to re-examine the policy but also how to better communicate the policies.”
Parliament Makeup
Polls close at 8 p.m. tomorrow. The parliament dissolved last month was made up of 82 PAP lawmakers, two elected opposition politicians and 10 non-elected members. Tan said a loss of more than seven seats by the PAP or their share of the popular vote dipping below 60 percent would be a poor showing.
In a nation where 82 percent of households have Internet access, the PAP’s Facebook page is “liked” by 25,004 people, less than the 32,332 who favor the rival Workers’ Party. Voter polls and approval ratings aren’t published in Singapore.
Opposition groups including the Workers’ Party and Singapore Democratic Party are contesting the PAP for 82 of 87 parliamentary seats on May 7. The constituency of Lee Kuan Yew, 87, the Cambridge University-trained lawyer who led the island from British rule and became its first premier, is the only one going uncontested.
“This is really shaping up to be an exciting election,” said Samantha Lee, 23, an undergraduate and first-time voter. “The PAP has done a great job bringing us so far but maybe it’s time to have more voices representing the people. The record number of opposition candidates this time must surely say something about citizens wanting more alternatives.”
Stock Reaction
Property stocks including CapitaLand Ltd. (CAPL) and Keppel Land Ltd. (KPLD) have fallen in the run-up to tomorrow’s vote amid concern there will be increased pressure to rein in home prices. CapitaLand has dropped 4.7 percent in the past month, exceeding the 2.2 percent decline in the Straits Times Index (FSSTI), while Keppel Land has retreated 11 percent.
“If there is a result that’s a lot less than expected for the ruling party, such as if they lose 20-30 percent of the number of seats in the parliament,” stocks would drop, said Wong of Bank Julius Baer. “There might be some concern in the market that some of the policies that they’ve been very aggressive on might be scaled back or modified, such as on casinos, tourism, commercial properties and immigration.”
Opposition parties may win 10 to 17 parliamentary seats, meaning the PAP will still have more than 80 percent of seats and “be in complete control of policy-making and implementation,” Prasenjit Basu, an economist at Daiwa Capital in Singapore, wrote in a report dated yesterday paperless payday loans.
Growth Recipe
In recent years, Singapore’s drive for growth has included the opening of two casino-resorts and bringing the Formula One race to the island to boost tourism. More than a third of Singapore’s 5.1 million population is made up of foreigners and permanent residents, whose growing numbers have led to increased competition for housing, jobs and education.
Smaller than New York City and without natural resources, Singapore’s gross domestic product was about S$285 billion ($231 billion) last year, compared with S$6.9 billion in 1960, based on 2005 market prices, while GDP per capita surged to S$59,813 from S$1,310 based on current prices. GDP surged 14.5 percent last year, the most in Asia. Singapore is the only Asian country with AAA ratings from Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings.
“Do not rock this foundation,” Lee Kuan Yew said in an editorial in the Today newspaper last week. “Do not risk your assets, property values, job opportunities. Vote for men and women of proven character and track records of high performance.”
Paying Dividends
The administration of Lee’s son, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, 59, says it hasn’t neglected its citizens for the sake of growth. In this year’s budget, the government plans to spend S$6.6 billion on benefits to ease the burden of inflation.
The government is distributing cash to all adult citizens as a “dividend” from record growth, supplementing the wages of low-income workers, upgrading homes and requiring companies to increase contributions into employees’ pension fund.
The PAP’s message still resounds among some voters.
“The current party works for me,” said Tan Sze Theng, 31, a tutor who lives in the affluent Bukit Timah neighborhood in Singapore. “I have my job, the country is stable, there are worse-off places to be in. There is complacency in the government, but it’s not big enough a reason for me to vote for the opposition.”
Lee Apologizes
Opposition groups are seeking to create a more diverse political structure. The Singapore Democratic Party said on its website April 18 that “little room has been left for the views of citizens to shape the policy-making process. This has led to a situation where local and national government is very far removed from the day-to-day concerns of the people.”
Prime Minister Lee apologized at a PAP rally for not moving faster to address shortfalls in housing, the Straits Times reported. “If we didn’t quite get it right, I am sorry but we will try and do better the next time,” the paper quoted him as saying May 3.
Dissent is growing among Singaporeans who may feel less beholden to a ruling party that led the island out of colonial rule than past voters. The shift mirrors that in nations from Malaysia to India, where the hold of independence-era parties has weakened. The last polls, in May 2006, returned the PAP to power with about 67 percent of the votes cast, down from 75 percent in the 2001 elections.
‘Very Complacent’
“They keep telling us how they built Singapore,” said Alvin Lee, a 25-year-old economics and finance student at Singapore Institute of Management who plans to vote for the opposition. “They are really very complacent.”
Singapore’s Gini coefficient, a gauge of income inequality, rose to 0.48 last year from 0.444 in 2000, according to the statistics department. A reading of zero means income equality, while a reading of one means complete inequality. Inflation accelerated to a two-year high of 5.5 percent in January.
“It’s very pressurizing living in Singapore,” said housewife Low Bee Kian, 39, who has three children aged 10 to 16. “Everything is so expensive. The government says the economy is doing well but why am I not feeling it?”
Rescuers have blasted through 163 feet of solid rock in an effort to find an Idaho silver miner who has been missing since a cave-in last week, Hecla Mining Co. said Friday.
But the company says the most difficult work is still to come, as they advance into possibly more treacherous conditions.
Workers still have about 57 feet to go before they reach a void inside a collapsed tunnel where they hope Larry Marek, 53, will be found more than a mile deep in the Lucky Friday Mine.
“Crews have been progressing safely and quickly,” Hecla said in a press release just before 6 p.m. on Friday. “However, as the crew advances closer (to where Marek may be), the work involved will become much more difficult, time consuming with new materials, equipment and supplies in order to advance the tunnel into potentially unstable ground.”
Hecla has decided not to start digging on a second rescue tunnel, to prevent interference with stability monitoring on the current excavation effort.
The collapse happened last Friday. Rescuers have had no contact with Marek since.
Hecla Mining said workers also continue to pump fresh air and water into separate bore holes that reach into the clear area behind the cave-in. Small cameras sent into that so-called “void” have yet to show any images of Marek.
“We have secured additional cameras from external sources which will help us see inside the open areas,” the company said, adding it’s also testing air quality in the area of the collapse.
Marek and his brother, Mike, had just finished watering down blasted-out rock and ore in an area called Stope 15, which has been mined for 14 years, Hecla said. The ceiling collapsed about 75 feet from the rock face of the 6,150-foot deep tunnel, the company said. Mike Marek, who was working at the opposite end of the collapse from his brother, escaped unharmed.
Marek has been trapped with little food and water, likely in the dark, in temperatures well over a 100 degrees.
Rescue workers are drilling and blasting their way through rock in an effort to reach Marek’s last known location.
No cause has been established for the cave-in. The mine has shut down production to concentrate on the rescue effort.
The Marek family has not spoken with reporters since the cave-in.
Hecla is the largest silver producer in the nation, from the Lucky Friday and the Greens Creek mine in Alaska.
Canadians are concerned about rising gas prices but are still shelling out for big ticket items, according to the latest consumer confidence data.
April
Investors drove up U.S. home sales last month, plunking down cash to grab cheap homes at risk of foreclosure. But first-time homebuyers, who are crucial to a housing recovery, stayed away.
Sales of previously occupied homes rose last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.1 million, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. That’s up 3.7 percent from 4.92 million in February. The pace is far below the 6 million homes a year that economists say represents a healthy market.
Foreclosures or short sales, when the lender agrees to accept less than is owed on the mortgage, rose to 40 percent of all sales. Deals paid for entirely in cash accounted for 35 percent of all sales _ the highest level in nearly two years.
Many of those purchases are being made by investors, who are targeting cheap properties in areas hit hardest by foreclosures: Phoenix, Las Vegas and Tampa.
The evidence of their activity: sales of homes priced under $100,000 have risen 10 percent from a year ago. In that same period, sales of mid-priced homes, between $100,000 and $500,000, have fallen by more than 14 percent.
A big reason for that is fewer first-time homebuyers, the types of people who set down roots and raise families, are entering the market. Sales among that group fell to 33 percent in March. A more healthy percentage of first-time buyers is 40 percent, according to the trade group.
The median sales price rose in March to $159,600, but is still down 5.9 percent from a year ago.
Many would-be buyers are holding off, worried that home prices haven’t hit their bottom. Other potential buyers are having trouble getting mortgages because banks have tightened lending requirements.
One major obstacle to a housing recovery is the glut of unsold homes on the market. There were 3.55 million unsold homes in March. It would take 8.4 months to clear them off the market at today’s sales pace. Analysts say a six-month supply represents a healthy supply of homes.
Economists say the situation is much worse when the “shadow inventory” of homes is taken into account. These are homes that are in the early stages of the foreclosure process but have not been put on the market yet for resale.
Foreclosures are playing a big role in weakening the housing industry. A record 1 million homes were lost to foreclosure last year and foreclosure tracker RealtyTrac Inc. said it expects 1.2 million more will be lost to foreclosures this year.
For March, sales rose 8.2 percent in the South, 3.9 percent in the Northeast and 1 percent in the Midwest. Sales fell 0.8 percent in the West.
Sales of single-family homes rose 4 percent to an annual rate of 4.45 million units. Sales of condominiums rose 1.6 percent to a rate of 650,000 units.
Portugal says it has paid out euro4.2 billion ($6.1 billion) in a bond redemption, avoiding default but further depleting its cash reserves ahead of a promised international bailout.
An official from the Finance Ministry said on condition of anonymity, in line with government policy, that Portugal repaid the maturing loan Friday, as expected.
Portuguese authorities have admitted they don’t have enough money to settle a euro7 billion debt falling due in June and have asked for financial help.
Portugal’s European partners and the International Monetary Fund have agreed to provide aid which could reach euro80 billion. But negotiations on the loan’s terms, especially how much interest Portugal will pay, are likely to take weeks.
The country is facing unsustainable borrowing costs, with its 10-year bond yield reaching 8.9 percent Friday.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP’s earlier story is below.
LISBON, Portugal (AP) _ Portugal is having to find euro4.2 billion ($6.1 billion) for a bond redemption, stoking financial pressure on the cash-strapped country which has requested a bailout.
Authorities say Portugal has enough money in reserve to cover the loan repayment Friday. However, they admit the country won’t be able to settle other debts in June.
Portugal’s European partners and the International Monetary Fund have agreed to provide a financial rescue package which could reach euro80 billion.
But negotiations on the terms of that loan, especially how much interest Portugal should pay on it, are likely to take weeks.
The bailout pledge hasn’t defused market tension, with the country’s 10-year bond yield reaching an unsustainable 8.9 percent Friday.
While the full extent of the disaster’s aftermath is not yet clear, the earthquake and tsunami that devastated parts of Japan could be the most expensive quake in history.
Its toll on Japan — its people and its institutions — is already staggering.
By official counts, more than 1,500 people have perished and about as many have been reported missing. There are fears that the death count could go much higher as rescuers get to towns that were washed away by powerful flooding.
Damage to power reactors has sparked fears of nuclear meltdown and radiation contamination. As of Sunday morning, nearly 5 million homes were without power. (Bank of Japan to help banks)
And the financial cost to the Japanese government, businesses and individuals is expected to be big. Cautioning that their estimates are preliminary, several experts made early calculations of the quake’s financial cost on Sunday.
Losses from the quake, tsunami and fires will total at least $100 billion, including $20 billion in damage to residences and $40 billion in damage to infrastructure such as roads, rail and port facilities, catastrophe modeling firm Eqecat estimated.
Another firm, AIR Worldwide, estimated that losses covered by insurance could reach between $15 billion and $35 billion from the earthquake alone. It did not estimate losses from the tsunami or the damage to the the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in northeastern Japan.
According to AIR, the number of Japanese businesses and homeowners with earthquake insurance is relatively low, ranging between 14% to 17%. As a result, the total financial toll for the catastrophe could be considerably higher than the estimate of insured losses.
In the 1995 earthquake in Kobe, the most expensive in history, total losses were $100 billion but insured losses only $3 billion, according to the Insurance Information Institute.
By comparison, the 1994 quake in Northridge, Calif., northwest of Los Angeles, had the highest tally of insured losses ever — $15.3 billion. In today’s dollars, adjusted for inflation, that comes to insured losses of $22.7 billion.
The Insurance Information Institute said it believes the losses from Friday’s disaster will prove to be the most expensive earthquake in history, although it did not give any dollar estimate of the costs.
European Union commissioners Olli Rehn and Michel Barnier said they are confident in Greece’s efforts to tackle its debt in the wake of its downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service.
Rehn, the EU’s economic and monetary affairs commissioner, and Barnier, who is in charge of financial-services policy in the region, said they are “confident in the actions the Greek government is carrying out.” Planned EU rules to regulate credit-rating companies “will be fundamental and tackle the problems we know exist,” the commissioners said in an e-mailed statement today.
Proposals on rating-firm regulation are “due before the end of the summer,” they said in the statement no fax needed payday loans. “The last few days highlight, once again, how important a more and better regulated environment for ratings is.”
Moodys downgraded Greece’s government bond ratings to B1 from Ba1, and assigned a negative outlook to the rating, on March 7. The ratings firm today cut Spain’s credit rating to Aa2, citing its concerns that the cost of shoring the banking industry will eclipse government estimates.
U.S. stocks closed little changed Wednesday in what was mostly a quiet session, as investors closely tracked developments in Libya and oil prices.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 1 point to close at 12,213.
IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) was the best performer among the blue chips. IBM’s shares climbed more than 2% after Deutsche Bank analysts upgraded their price target on Big Blue to $200 a share and maintained a "buy" rating on the stock
The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 1.8 points, or 0.1%, to 1,320. The Nasdaq (COMP) composite lost 14 points, or 0.5%, to 2,752.
Investors had little market-moving data to work with Wednesday, with no major economic reports and no companies releasing quarterly results.
Oil remained the dominant issue for investors. Crude prices have been surging for weeks, and there’s been little on the domestic front to help give stocks a sustained boost.
Oil posted modest losses on Wednesday, falling 85 cents, or less than one percent, to $104.16 a barrel.
"The story is higher oil, and it will remain so as long as oil remains higher than it has been in recent years," said Frank Davis, director of sales and trading with LEK Securities.
Investors said there’s a reasonable chance prices could continue to rise in the near-term as unrest and violence continue to rattle North Africa and the Middle East. But they also think oil will ease as the year goes on once the fears subside.
"This $105 oil is not demand-driven as the global economy is still struggling," said Keith Goddard, president and portfolio manager at Capital Advisors. "Oil’s fluctuations are all fear-based at the moment — we can wake up one morning and Libya’s fine, or we can wake up another day and Libya’s in focus again."
"Investors are slowly starting to reposition portfolios for the possibility that these prices may stay around for awhile," Davis said.
U.S. stocks closed broadly higher Tuesday, led by a strong performance in the financial sector. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) CEO Brian Moynihan issued a rosy multi-year outlook at the bank’s first shareholder meeting in four years.
Companies: The biggest loser on the S&P 500 was JDS Uniphase (JDSU), with shares of the optical networking equipment maker plunging 17%. The entire sector got hammered after rival Finisar (FNSR) issued a weak outlook Tuesday, citing weak demand out of China. Shares of Finisar sank 39% Wednesday.
After the close, Hot Topic (HOTT) and Coldwater Creek (CWTR) release quarterly results.
Economy: The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories rose 1.1% in January, slightly better than the 1% rise economists had expected, according to a consensus estimate from Briefing.com.
World markets: European stocks closed lower. Britain’s FTSE 100 slid 0.6%, the DAX in Germany lost 0.5%, and France’s CAC 40 lost 0.6%.
The yield on Portuguese bonds jumped as the European nation issued two-year bonds on Tuesday, but fears of a potential bailout didn’t have much impact on international markets.
Asian markets ended with gains. The Shanghai Composite rose nearly 0.1%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.4%, and Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.6%.
Currencies and commodities: The dollar slipped versus the euro and the British pound but was flat against the Japanese yen.
Gold futures for April delivery closed up $2.40 to $1,429.60 an ounce.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, with the yield slipping to 3.54% from 3.54% late Tuesday.
Bill Donius will not seek re-election to Pulaski Financial Corp.’s board of directors next year and instead will devote his time to civic, charitable and unspecified commercial interests, the Creve Coeur-based bank announced Tuesday.
Donius is currently a member of the board and has previously served subsidiary Pulaski Bank as senior manager, chairman, CEO or director continuously since 1992. Donius stepped down as CEO in May 2008 when Gary Douglass took on the role.
“I plan to focus my full-time energies on community service, publishing the book I’ve written and continuing to write for the Huffington Post,” Donius said in a statement.
When he was CEO, Donius had been the third member of his family to run Pulaski. He succeeded his father, Walter Donius, who took over from Bill Donius’ grandfather, Michael Burdzy.
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