Actual finance blog

On the day the Deepwater Horizon sank, BP officials warned in an internal memo that if the well was not protected by the blow-out preventer at the drill site, crude oil could burst into the Gulf of Mexico at a rate of 3.4 million gallons a day, an amount a million gallons higher than what the government later believed spilled daily from the site.

The email conversation, which BP agreed to release Friday as part of federal court proceedings, suggests BP managers recognized the potential of the disaster in its early hours, and company officials sought to make sure that the model-developed information wasn’t shared with outsiders. The emails also suggest BP was having heated discussions with Coast Guard officials over the potential of the oil spill.

The memo was released as part of the court proceedings to determine the division of responsibility for the nation’s worst offshore oil disaster, which began when the BP-leased Deepwater Horizon exploded April 20, 2010, killing 11 men about 50 miles southeast of the Louisiana coast. The first phase of the trial is set to start Feb. 27.

BP officials declined to comment on the emails late Friday.

The official amount of oil that flowed from the well was pegged at 206 million gallons from at least April 22 until the well was capped on July 15, a period of 85 days. That’s a daily flow rate of about 2.4 million gallons _ two-thirds of the way to BP’s projection of what could leak from the well if it was an “open hole.” BP has disputed the government’s estimates.

Having an accurate flow rate estimate is needed to determine how much in civil and criminal penalties BP and the other companies drilling the well face under the Clean Water Act.

In the memo, a BP official urges not to share the flow-rate projections and refers to the “difficult discussions” the company was having at the time with the Coast Guard guaranteed personal loan approval.

Gary Imm, a BP manager, told Rob Marshall, BP’s subsea manager in the Gulf, to tell the modeler doing the estimates “not to communicate to anyone on this.”

“A number of people have been looking at this we already have had difficult discussions with the USCG on the numbers,” Imm said in the email string, referring to the Coast Guard and flow estimates.

On April 23, 2010, the Coast Guard, relying on BP’s remotely operated vehicles, said no oil was leaking from the well a mile under the sea. A day later, Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry announced that oil was leaking an estimated rate of 42,000 gallons a day. The Coast Guard and BP did not divulge how they reached that figure.

In the second week after the spill, the official flow rate was increased to 210,000 gallons a day, an estimate the government continued to use until May 27.

On May 24, BP informed Congress they used an “undisclosed method to generate much higher figures” than the official estimates, according to a report from a presidential commission investigating the spill. BP estimated that the flow rates were between 210,000 gallons and 1.6 million gallons a day, the January 2011 report said.

As the spill grew into weeks and months, and soiled fishing grounds, beaches and coastal marshes, independent scientists questioned the official flow rates. Eventually, the federal government convened teams of government and independent scientists to determine how much oil leaked out of the well. They came up with an official estimate of about 2.4 million gallons of oil a day on average.

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Greece’s prime minister will hold new talks with representatives of the country’s private sector creditors on a crucial euro100 billion ($129 billion) debt writedown.

Lucas Papademos will meet late Thursday with Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance, a banking lobby, and Jean Lemierre, senior adviser to the chairman of French bank BNP Paribas.

Greece is hoping to conclude the negotiations by the end of this week, despite disagreements over the terms of the deal.

An IIF statement Wednesday said the goal is to agree on all outstanding legal and technical issues as soon as possible.

The private debt writedown is a vital part of a new bailout for Greece, which has been surviving on international rescue loans since May 2010.

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Swedish inflation-linked bonds may be understating the risk of price gains in the largest Nordic economy as most forecasters, including the central bank, predict inflation will outpace market bets.

The breakeven rate on Sweden

President Barack Obama planted his political flag in Florida on Thursday ahead of the state’s Jan. 31 Republican presidential primary, promising a fresh boost to the economy by making it easier for foreign tourists to travel to the U.S.

Obama sought his piece of Florida’s political spotlight with a high-profile appearance at Walt Disney World, where he announced initiatives aimed at making it easier for citizens of China and Brazil to visit the United States.

“America is open for business,” Obama declared against the backdrop of Disney’s Cinderella castle and picture-perfect blue skies. “We want to welcome you.”

From Florida, Obama headed to New York City for four glitzy campaign fundraisers, including an event at the famed Apollo Theater featuring performances by Al Green and India.Arie. Tickets to that fundraiser start at $100.

The president also was to attend a $35,800 per ticket fundraiser at the home of film director Spike Lee, and two small fundraisers at Daniel, an exclusive Manhattan restaurant. Tickets start at $5,000 for the first restaurant fundraiser and $15,000 for the second. Obama raised more than $220 million for his campaign and the Democratic National Committee through the end of 2011.

Beyond offering an opportunity to talk about the economy, Obama’s trip to Florida marked an attempt by the White House and his campaign to steal attention from Republicans vying for the GOP presidential nomination. In recent weeks Obama held a live video conference with Iowa voters during the Republican caucus, Vice President Joe Biden held a similar event with voters in New Hampshire on the night of the state’s first-in-the-nation primary and next week Obama will travel to Nevada, which follows Florida on the primary calendar.

Obama was greeted in the Orlando area by ads from GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney blaming the president for the state’s struggling economy. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, could take a major step toward securing the Republican nomination with a win in Florida’s Jan. 31 primary contest.

“I have a simple question for you: Where are the jobs?” Romney wrote in an open letter to the president on Thursday running as an ad in the Tampa Bay Times. In a conference call with reporters, Romney said Obama was “speaking from Fantasyland.”

While Obama carried Florida in 2008, the state is a top target for Republicans in the November elections. Florida twice backed Republican George W. Bush, providing the decisive electoral votes in the cliffhanger 2000 election that was decided after a 36-day recount payday loan lenders.

Tourism is a key component to the economy in Florida, which has been battered by 10 percent unemployment and rampant home foreclosures.

The White House said more than 1 million U.S. jobs could be created over the next decade, according to industry projections, if the U.S. increases its share of the international travel market.

The tourism initiative is part of an executive order Obama signed. Its goal is to boost nonimmigrant visa processing capacity in China and Brazil by 40 percent this year; expand a Visa Waiver Program that allows participating nationals to travel to the U.S. for stays of 90 days or less without a visa; appoint a new group of chief executives to the U.S. Travel and Tourism Advisory Board; and direct an interagency task force to develop recommendations for a National Travel and Tourism Strategy, including promoting national parks and other sites.

The efforts to boost tourism were praised by travel and tourism groups, but one lawmaker said the decision to relax tourist visas could undermine national security. Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, said the administration was “pushing the envelope and using their authority beyond congressional intent,” noting that only two of the 19 hijackers in the 9/11 terrorist attacks were interviewed by consular offices. He said Congress moved to require visa applicants to be interviewed as a result.

The White House says the travel and tourism industry represented 2.7 percent of gross domestic product and 7.5 million jobs in 2010. But the U.S. share of spending by international travelers fell from 17 percent to 11 percent between 2000 and 2010, due to increased competition and changes in global development, as well as security measures imposed after Sept. 11, 2001, according to the White House.

The approach was welcomed by Brazilian tourists Lilian Lara and Lindbergh Souza, who shopped along the resort’s streets hours before the president’s speech. Souza said the visa process was expensive, at $500, and time-consuming for Brazilians who don’t live close to consuls in Rio de Janiero and Sao Paulo. “The whole process took me six months,” Souza said.

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Associated Press writer Mike Schneider contributed to this report.

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French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Monday shrugged off his country’s loss of its prized AAA debt rating, saying the downgrade by rating agency Standard & Poor’s would change nothing.

The comments, his first since S&P lowered its score on France and eight European other countries on Friday, followed a successful auction by France of euro8.6 billion ($10.9 billion) in short-term debt Monday. The yields, the interest rates charged by investors on the debt, fell _ a sign investors still see the country as a good bet.

France won a further small reprieve Monday, when the Moody’s agency confirmed that it would keep its top rating. However, the S&P decision could seriously impair Sarkozy’s bid for re-election this spring.

Sarkozy told reporters he was unconcerned with the opinions of ratings agencies.

“We have to react to this (the downgrade) with calm, by taking a step back,” he said at a news conference with the new Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. “At the core, my conviction is that it changes nothing.”

Sarkozy won support from Rajoy for a new European tax on financial transactions being pushed by France and Germany. Rajoy’s center-right government took power last month, and had not previously stated its position on the tax.

The French president said the ratings agencies’ decisions would not affect his policies, though he did acknowledge that France has work to do, saying that its deficits and spending were too high and that its growth was too slow.

He also noted that two of the three major agencies still rate France at triple-A, the highest rating. Fitch confirmed the rating last week. The S&P move was especially brutal for France, one of the world’s biggest economies and a financier of bailouts for smaller, poorer eurozone countries.

There are more government auctions in Europe this week, including longer-term offerings from France on Thursday, so the European debt crisis will never be too far from investors’ minds.

The news conference began combatively when Sarkozy refused to answer a question about whether France’s downgrade would affect its ability to lead Europe out of the crisis and if it had any connection with the meeting between the French, Italian and German leaders scheduled for next week being postponed.

Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have taken the lead in proposing solutions to the crisis and major decisions are often hashed out at their meetings ahead of European summits.

“You don’t have the latest information,” Sarkozy blithely told the reporter, apparently referring to Moody’s decision on Monday. The reporter rephrased the question two more times, but Sarkozy again refused to answer totally free credit score.

Later on, in response to other questions, he confirmed that the three-way summit would take place in February and spoke about the S&P downgrade.

Earlier, Sarkozy met with Spanish King Juan Carlos, who said he’s confident France and Spain would help Europe find a way out of the crisis.

The king said the two nations were “struggling together for the advance of a unified and prosperous Europe in solidarity that confronts the crisis with strength.”

Rajoy’s Socialist predecessor also supported the financial tax championed by Sarkozy, but was ousted from office by Spaniards angry about the country’s hurting economy and high unemployment.

The European Commission has estimated that the tax could raise as much as euro57 billion ($72.2 billion) a year, funds that could be used to help reduce the substantial budget deficits crippling European economies.

For the tax to be successful, however, it needs to be adopted by as many countries as possible. Sarkozy has said it might be enough to enact it among the 17-nation euro countries. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti prefers applying it across the full 27-nation European Union, but that would be more difficult because of U.K. opposition.

Part of the reason for the tax would be to raise funds at a time when governments are struggling with high debts.

Moody’s cited France’s economic strength as a reason for affirming its top rating but said bleak growth prospects in France and the region present “risks to the French government’s fiscal consolidation plans.”

“France, like other eurozone sovereigns, may face a number of challenges in the coming months. The need to provide additional support to other European sovereigns or to its own banking system cannot be excluded,” Moody’s warned.

Moody’s said Monday it “will update the market during the first quarter of 2012 as part of the initiative to revisit the overall architecture of our sovereign ratings in the EU.”

Sarkozy’s challengers for the presidency have seized on the S&P downgrade as evidence that his policies are wrong-headed and ineffective.

It will be a bruising election battle for Sarkozy, a dynamic leader who has a strong international profile but is widely disliked at home. Leftists say he has coddled the rich, while many of those who supported him in his 2007 campaign say he hasn’t fulfilled his promises.

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If Republican primary voters are inclined to reward candidates who have big, bold, game-changing plans for the tax code, Mitt Romney might be in trouble.

Compared to the ideas pushed by other White House hopefuls this cycle — particularly Newt Gingrich — Romney’s plan is just not that aggressive.

Of course, Romney’s plan is still firmly rooted in mainstream Republican thought, and that means big tax cuts and a corresponding reduction in federal revenue.

If the Bush tax cuts remain in place — something Romney favors — the federal government would bring in $180 billion less in 2015 under Romney’s plan, according to an analysis conducted by the Tax Policy Center, a group of tax experts who have already examined the plans of Gingrich and Rick Perry.

The rich would see the most benefit, with individuals in the top 1% receiving a tax cut of more than $80,000, while the average person would get a little more than $1,000 break.

"In many ways, Romney’s tax plank is a fairly mainstream Republican offering," Howard Gleckman of TPC said in a blog post. The plan, he said, contains "no major tax reform."

Romney would leave marginal tax rates on income at their current levels, while eliminating taxes on interest, dividends and capital gains for taxpayers who make less than $200,000.

The Romney plan also calls for the elimination of the estate tax, and a reduction in the tax rate paid by corporations from 35% to 25%.

Other candidates have gone further.

"It’s timid, at least by standards of Republican primary plans," said Daniel Mitchell, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. "From the perspective of the average primary voter, he is probably just trimming around the edges."

Romney has not proposed a flat tax like Gingrich or Perry, and the front-runner has also shied away from the retail sales tax that was the centerpiece of Herman Cain’s now famous 9-9-9 plan personal loan for poor credit.

The Tax Foundation, a think tank that generally advocates for lower tax rates, has said that Romney’s plan for the individual code "really takes no step toward fundamental reform."

In fact, Romney is the lone Republican candidate who has not proposed modifying current tax brackets or substantially reducing income tax rates. Instead, he has articulated only a vague promise to pursue a future plan with "lower, flatter rates on a broader base."

Even President Obama’s fiscal commission, which won plaudits from both sides of the aisle, planned to lower individual rates across the board while eliminating special deductions and loopholes. Under that plan, the top rate paid by individuals would have dropped from 35% to 23%.

On corporate taxes, Romney favors higher rates than his competitors. Romney’s 25% proposed rate carries a less aggressive reduction than that of Gingrich (12.5%), Perry (20%), Rick Santorum (17.5%) or Ron Paul (15%).

America’s Choice 2012

Andrea Saul, a spokeswoman for the campaign, said Romney’s economic policies are a "blueprint for governing that includes dramatic spending cuts to reduce the deficit and pro-growth tax policies."

Grover Norquist, head of the anti-tax advocacy group Americans for Tax Reform, said late last year that Romney’s plan was "fine" but noted that he was falling behind his rivals.

"I think Romney put his plan in very early, Norquist said on Meet the Press, and he "needs to update it to catch up with where the debate’s going,"

But after capturing the Iowa caucuses, Romney might not need to change or explain his tax policies in more detail.

"If you’re the front-runner, then there are a lot of incentives to just run out the clock," Mitchell said. 

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The job market is looking a little brighter at the start of the new year.

Weekly unemployment benefit applications have fallen to levels last seen more than three years ago. Holiday sales were solid. Service companies grew a little faster in December. And many small businesses say they plan to add jobs over the next three months.

The mix of private and government data released Thursday sketched a picture of an economy that is slowly strengthening, stoking optimism one day ahead of the government’s important read on December job growth.

“Businesses have increased hiring to meet the underlying pick-up in (consumer) demand,” said Neil Dutta, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The mostly positive reports had little impact on financial markets. Traders seemed more focused on the debt crisis in Europe, which could slow U.S. growth later this year. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 37 points in midday trading. Broader indexes were mixed.

Weekly applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a seasonally adjusted 372,000 last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s 11 percent lower than the same time last year.

The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, fell to 373,250 _ the lowest level since June 2008.

When applications drop below 375,000 _ consistently _ they generally signal that hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate.

Steven Wood, an economist at Insight Economics, said applications last year averaged 411,000 per week, down from 459,000 per week in 2010.

That’s “a clear indication that the pace of layoffs has slowed,” Wood said.

U.S. service firms, which employ roughly 90 percent of the work force, grew a little faster in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

The trade group of purchasing managers said its index of non-manufacturing activity rose to 52.6. That’s slightly above November’s reading of 52 _ the lowest in nearly two years _ but well below last year’s high of 59.7 recorded in February.

Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

An increase in new orders and stronger imports drove last month’s modest expansion. But a gauge of hiring showed many service firms were hesitant to add workers no fax payday advance.

Retailers, meanwhile, reported solid but not spectacular sales gains last month. And much of the increase stemmed from heavy discounting that will likely cut into profits.

Sales rose 3.5 percent in December for a group of 25 retail chains tracked by the International Council of Shopping Centers. Holiday sales, which cover the last two months of the year, rose 3.3 percent, a decent rise but less than last year’s gain.

Small businesses remain encouraged about their plans to hire over the next three months. The National Federation of Independent Business says the proportion of those firms that expect to add workers is slightly off from the three-year high hit last month.

Economists are predicting that overall hiring increased in December and will strengthen this year.

John Ryding, an economist at RDQ Economics, forecasts that employers added 180,000 jobs last month, a big jump from November’s 120,000 net jobs.

Economists surveyed by the Associated Press project that the economy will generate an average of 175,000 jobs per month this year. That would be a step up from average monthly gains of 130,000 last year and 78,000 in 2010.

In November, the unemployment rate fell to 8.6 percent from 9 percent. Still, about half that decline occurred because many of the unemployed gave up looking for work. When people stop looking for a job, they’re no longer counted as unemployed.

The pickup in hiring reflects some modest improvement in the economy. Growth will likely top 3 percent at an annual rate in the final three months of this year, economists expect. That would be a sharp improvement over the 1.8 percent growth in the July-September quarter.

Even so, many economists forecast that growth could slow to roughly 2 percent this year. Europe is almost certain to fall into recession because of its financial troubles. And without more jobs and higher incomes, consumers may have to cut back on spending. That could drag on growth in 2012.

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AP Economics Writer Martin Crutsinger contributed to this report.

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British police and journalists agree that their cozy ties allowed illegal phone hacking to go on too long, an independent investigator said Wednesday.

Elizabeth Filkin, a former Parliamentary standards chief, said a culture of confidential briefings, poor guidance from senior staff too ready to accept reporters’ hospitality and a bias toward some tabloids must be overhauled by London police.

Police officers should be wary of journalists who offer alcoholic drinks, make flirty advances or tempt potential sources into “late-night carousing,” Filkin warned.

“Alcohol is fraught issue … drinking loosens tongues, so common sense is needed,” her guidelines state, warning that “some journalists do not practice abstinence.”

Witnesses from both sides had told her inquiry the issue lay behind the failure of early police investigations to uncover the true extent of media malpractice.

An initial police investigation led to the jailing of a reporter from the now-defunct News of The World tabloid and a private investigator in 2007, but failed to unearth the widespread interception of cell phone voice mail messages of celebrities, sporting stars, legislators and even crime victims.

Since then, London police have identified 5,795 potential phone hacking victims and launched three new inquiries into alleged criminality by the press.

Filkin’s inquiry said relationships between the police, particularly senior officers, and the press had “compromised the capacity of both the police and the media to scrutinize the activities of the other.”

However Filkin, who was appointed by London’s Metropolitan Police to review their relationship with the press, said it would be down to a new police inquiry, not her, to say how badly that had hampered inquiries into phone hacking.

“I don’t know whether it inhibited that inquiry,” Filkin said paydayloans. “What I heard from a large number of people, both journalists and people who work at the Met, was that they feared it had.”

“That was the greatest concern for me from what I heard,” she said, presenting her proposed new guidelines to officers on how to handle the press.

Since the extent of tabloid phone hacking was exposed last summer, more than a dozen News of the World journalists, including former editor Andy Coulson, have been arrested.

The scandal also forced the resignations of London’s top police officer, the Metropolitan Police commissioner Paul Stephenson, and assistant commissioner John Yates.

Stephenson quit in July over his links to Neil Wallis, a former News of the World executive turned PR consultant. Yates resigned amid criticism of his handling of initial investigation.

“There will be no more secret conversations, there will be no more improper contacts,” said Stephenson’s successor as London’s top police officer, Bernard Hogan-Howe.

Hogan-Howe pledged to take up Filkin’s recommendations in full, including a proposal that officers should in the future record every contact they have with reporters for potential inspection.

Filkin did not discuss in detail allegations that Britain’s press paid London police for information, but said claims from senior officers that only a few people were involved conflicted with accounts she had received from journalists.

Eight people, including a serving police officer and a reporter working for The Sun tabloid, have been arrested as part of an inquiry into the alleged bribes, though no one has been charged.

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Commodities may rebound from their first retreat in three years as developing economies shore up global growth, driving demand higher at a time when raw-material producers are already struggling to keep up.

Precious metals will advance 27 percent or more, industrial metals at least 17 percent and grains 5 percent, according to the median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of 143 analysts, traders and investors. Nine of the 15 commodities covered by a similar survey a year earlier reached their predicted highs in 2011, with another five no more than 4 percent away.

The Standard & Poor