Actual finance blog

November 27, 2011

China ‘keen’ to invest in West’s infrastructure

Filed under: Business, term — Tags: , , , — Professor Besto @ 11:40 pm

China’s sovereign wealth fund wants to invest in improving neglected U.S. and European roads and other infrastructure to spur global growth, the fund’s chairman said in comments published Monday.

The announcement reflects a shift in strategy for the $410 billion fund, which was created in 2007. Until now, it has limited its investments mostly to small stakes in publicly traded companies to avoid stirring political opposition overseas.

China Investment Corp. wants to begin in Britain by teaming up with fund managers or investing directly in infrastructure projects, Lou Jiwei said in a commentary in London’s Financial Times newspaper.

“China is keen to get involved” in improving U.S. and European infrastructure, which “badly needs more investment,” Lou wrote. He cited energy, water, transport, digital communications and waste disposal but gave no indication of possible projects or the size of Chinese investment.

Some commentators in both Europe and China have suggested Beijing might use its $3.2 trillion in foreign reserves to gain leverage on political or trade issues at a time when other governments urgently want investment.

CIC was created to invest abroad in hopes of earning a better return on China’s foreign reserves, the bulk of which are in U.S. and European government bonds. It says investments are made on commercial rather than political grounds.

The move into infrastructure probably reflects CIC’s commercial views, rather than those of the government, said Citigroup economist Minggao Shen. He said it could help CIC earn a more stable profit and reduce Beijing’s exposure to U.S. and European government bonds amid volatile markets.

Some Chinese commentators have called for Beijing to reduce its exposure to the financial woes of Western governments by buying fewer bonds. China is Washington’s biggest foreign bondholder, with $1.15 trillion in Treasury debt as of September.

“There is a general thought that maybe China should not invest in U.S. Treasurys or European sovereign bonds. Instead, why can’t we hold direct assets in the economy?” Shen said.

By investing in individual projects, he said, “you don’t have to depend on government guarantees and it should be affected less by the sovereign debt crisis.”

CIC faced criticism over the performance of investments made just as the financial crisis was developing. But its results have improved and the fund reported an 11.7 percent return on assets last year.

Lou stressed that CIC is a commercial investor and wants to make a profit.

“CIC believes that such an investment, guided by commercial principles, offers the chance of a win-win solution for all,” he wrote.

Lou gave no indication in which other countries the CIC might invest but cited an estimate that the United States needs to spend at least $2.2 trillion in infrastructure repairs or rebuilding.

“Free of the inflationary pressure that afflicts many emerging economies, the U.S. and Europe should make substantial investment,” he said. “We cannot count on developing countries to deliver a stable economic recovery on their own.”

Source

November 26, 2011

Asia stocks slump on Europe debt crisis impasse

Filed under: online, stocks — Tags: , , , — Professor Besto @ 11:56 am

Asian stock markets were mostly lower Friday as the results of a meeting among leaders of Europe’s biggest economies disappointed investors and Portugal’s credit rating was lowered to junk.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell marginally to 8,161.87 while South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.9 percent at 1,779.93. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.8 percent to 17,790.54 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 1.4 percent at 3,989.

Investment sentiment continued to wane after a meeting Thursday in Strasbourg, France of the leaders of the three biggest euro economies: Italian Premier Mario Monti, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The three leaders pledged to push for changes to European Union treaties to bring the fiscal policies of countries using the euro common currency more in line with each other.

Many investors were hoping Merkel might drop her steadfast opposition to a greater role for the European Central Bank or the creation of a eurobond that would pool the debts of all countries in the currency union. Some experts believe the ECB is the only institution capable of getting Europe past its debt crisis.

Piled onto the disappointment from the Strasbourg summit was a debt demotion for Portugal cash advance flexible payments.

Fitch Ratings, citing Portugal’s large fiscal imbalances, its high indebtedness across all sectors and an adverse macroeconomic outlook, reduced the country’s credit rating to BB+. That means Portugal is considered non-investment grade by Fitch, making it even more difficult for the struggling country to return to the bond markets.

In the U.S., markets were closed for the Thanksgiving on Thursday. A crucial test comes on so-called Black Friday _ the day that kicks off the holiday shopping season.

How well retailers do during the biggest shopping season of the year will have consequences for the still-fragile U.S. economic recovery.

The spending of consumers, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, can impact stores’ expansion plans and inventory decisions into the new year. That trickles through the rest of the economy, from suppliers to jobs.

The November-December period accounts for 25-40 percent of annual sales. About a quarter of jobs in the U.S. are directly or indirectly supported by the retail industry.

Source

November 19, 2011

Egyptian police, protesters clash

Filed under: marketing, technology — Tags: , , , — Professor Besto @ 9:00 pm

Egyptian riot police firing tear gas and rubber bullets stormed into Cairo’s Tahrir Square Saturday to dismantle a protest tent camp, setting off clashes that killed one protester, injured hundreds and raised tension days before the first elections since Hosni Mubarak’s ouster.

The scenes of protesters fighting with black-clad police forces were reminiscent of the 18-day uprising that forced an end to Mubarak’s rule in February. Hundreds of protesters fought back, hurling stones and setting an armored police vehicle ablaze.

The violence raised fears of new unrest surrounding the parliamentary elections that are due to begin on Nov. 28. Public anger has risen over the slow pace of reforms and apparent attempts by Egypt’s ruling generals to retain power over a future civilian government payday advance lenders.

Witnesses said the clashes began when police dismantled a tent camp commemorating the hundreds of protesters killed in the uprising and attacked about 200 demonstrators who had camped in the square overnight in an attempt to restart a long-term sit-in there.

Police fired rubber bullets, tear gas and beat protesters with batons. A 23-year-old protester died from a gunshot, said Health Ministry official Mohammed el-Sherbeni. At least 676 people were injured, he said.

 

Source

November 14, 2011

IMF warns China’s banks face growing risks

Filed under: management, technology — Tags: , , , — Professor Besto @ 10:40 pm

The International Monetary Fund says China’s banks face growing risks due to a credit boom and it urged Beijing to reduce the government role in lending decisions.

The report Tuesday adds to warnings by industry analysts that China’s banks face a possible rise in bad loans and other problems after a flood of lending helped it rebound quickly from the 2008 global crisis.

The IMF cited possible risks from a fall in soaring real estate prices, a rise in bad loans due to crisis-related lending and growing imbalances in an economy that relies heavily on exports and investment direct payday lenders.

The IMF urged Beijing to move further toward using interest rates instead of direct orders to regulate lending.

Source

November 11, 2011

Pacific rim leaders mull ways to fend off EU woes

Filed under: economics, legal — Tags: , , , — Professor Besto @ 7:56 pm

A push to build a Pacific free trade bloc gained ground Friday with Japan’s decision to join negotiations, as Asia-Pacific leaders converging on Hawaii for an annual summit mulled ways to prevent Europe’s crisis from derailing the global recovery.

The weekend meeting of the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which brings together leaders from Russia to Chile, is focused on creating jobs and business through nuts-and-bolts measures such as investment in infrastructure and reforms aimed at providing more access to financing for the poor.

Such moves are gaining urgency, with the European Union warning of a possible “deep and prolonged recession” next year as the debt crisis that has engulfed Ireland, Portugal and Greece shows signs of spiraling out of control. A European recession would be felt sharply in the U.S., where growth is already anemic, and in Asia, which relies on Europe as a big market for its cars, clothing, consumer electronics and other exports.

“In the coming 12 months there is quite a strong likelihood that things will go worse,” Hong Kong’s chief executive, Donald Tsang, told a gathering of business leaders on the sidelines of the APEC meetings. “Global performance will be dragged down and then there will be an awakening, I hope,” he said.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in opening a meeting of foreign and economic ministers that many forces outside the Pacific region will have an impact on it. “Global trends and world events have given us a full and formidable agenda,” she said. “And the stakes are high for all of us.”

As host of the annual summit, the U.S. has made expanding trade, promoting green growth and deepening cooperation on regulation and standards to help dismantle barriers to trade and nurture faster growth.

“We’ve even created an unofficial slogan: ‘Get Stuff Done,” Clinton said.

The U.S. also is hoping to garner support for a Pacific free trade pact that many APEC members see as a building block for a free trade area that encompasses all of Asia and the Pacific, covering half the world’s commerce and two-fifths of its trade.

That goal advanced Friday with Japan’s announcement that it will seek to join the bloc, called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, despite strong opposition from farmers fearful of exposure to greater foreign competition.

The Pacific trade pact, known as the TPP, currently includes Chile, New Zealand, Brunei and Singapore _ all relatively small economies. The U.S., Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Peru are negotiating to join. The participation of Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, would vastly expand its reach.

At the same time they are working toward a broader agreement, countries continue to forge separate free-trade agreements. On Friday, Vietnam and Chile were to due to sign a free trade agreement on the sidelines of the APEC meetings.

The U.S. recently clinched long-sought free trade pacts with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama _ agreements that if ratified will bring to 20 the number of countries that have free trade agreements with the U.S.

In Honolulu, Washington was keeping up pressure on China to commit to faster trade liberalization and to freeing its currency, which U.S. officials say remains undervalued even though it has gained substantially against the U.S. dollar in recent years.

A statement by APEC finance ministers released Thursday included a call for exchange rate flexibility. Treasury Department officials said China’s willingness to back such a commitment _ both at the Group of 20 meeting in Cannes last week and in Honolulu this week _ could encourage similar moves by other Asia-Pacific economies.

But Beijing’s apparent openness to move faster on its currency policy was not matched by similar support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which earlier this week a senior official in Beijing described as “overly ambitious.”

Overall, given APEC’s lack of negotiating power _ all decisions are by consensus _ prospects for major changes are slim. But over the years the group’s incremental efforts have helped build support for closer economic ties and freer trade.

Clinton said that by agreeing on something as rudimentary as shared safety standards for televisions, countries in the region saw exports of TVs jump by nearly half in three years.

Source

October 31, 2011

Strong GDP gains put to rest fears of recession

Filed under: economics, technology — Tags: , , , — Professor Besto @ 2:36 pm

OTTAWA—A surging energy sector gave a healthy 0.3 per cent boost to the economy in August, suggesting Canada rebounded much more strongly than believed during the summer, following a surprising dip in the spring.

Statistics Canada also upgraded July’s gross domestic product a tick to 0.4 per cent on Monday, which places the economy on track to post a strong three per cent gain in the third quarter.

Following a 0.4 per cent contraction in the second quarter, and expectations of softness due to the market turmoil that took hold in early late July, some analysts had speculated it was possible for Canada to have suffered a technical recession of two negative quarters over the summer.

But that is no longer in the realm of possibility, given the bigger than expected numbers in the first two months.

“Even assuming a soft September, the quarter could come in at 2.9 per cent,” said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist with CIBC World Markets.

“We still see growth slipping back below two per cent in the fourth quarter, but odds are increasing that the second half should end up well above the Bank of Canada’s recent projection barring some new, unforeseen shock,” he added.

Scotiabank’s Derek Holt said the stronger two months means that September would need to have seen a disastrous 0.5 per cent retrenchment — and there were no signs that happened given the 61,000 pick up in jobs during the month — for third-quarter growth to have come in as weak as the Bank of Canada’s call of two per cent.

“Indeed, the recession chatter of a few weeks ago looks pretty ridiculous in light of almost four per cent GDP growth in the latest three months.

The consensus of economists had expected a 0.2 per cent increase in August, and did not foresee July’s revision.

However, August’s expansion was not as strong in other areas — the agency noted the country’s gross domestic product would have remained unchanged but for the 2.8 per cent jump in the energy sector.

Overall, industries tied to Canada’s domestic economy did well, while those related to exports did not.

The financial sector, as well as real estate and insurance, retail and construction all posted gains.

On the flipside, manufacturing fell 0.4 per cent, wholesale trade 1.4 per cent, and transport and warehousing was also down slightly on weak foreign demand and strong dollar.

The public sector (public administration, education and health care) overall was unchanged, as was mining.

Economists were uniform in saying the stronger than expected state of the economy is unlikely to materially impact the Bank of Canada’s position on interest rates.

Analysts still expect the central bank to keep its target overnight rate at one per cent until at least the middle of next year, and some say until well into 2013.

Source

October 28, 2011

Business Calendar

Filed under: Loans, USA — Tags: , , , — Professor Besto @ 3:16 am

SATURDAY

Patents

October 23, 2011

Thailand says capital flood threat may ease soon

Filed under: Mortgage, USA — Tags: , , , — Professor Besto @ 12:08 pm

The threat that floodwaters will inundate Thailand’s capital could ease by early November as record-high levels in the river carrying torrents of water downstream from the country’s north begin to decline, authorities said Sunday.

Bangkok’s immediate prospects remain uncertain, however, as the front lines in battling the flood from north, east and west of the city draw closer daily.

The relatively rosy longer term projection from the Flood Relief Operations Center came just a day after reports that Bangkok’s main Chao Phraya river was overflowing its banks and at its highest levels in seven years.

People should not be too concerned because the spillover could be drained, said the center’s chief, Justice Minister Pracha Promnok, in a televised news conference. He also said water in an overflowing main canal in Bangkok was receding, and drainage efforts east and west of the city were working well.

The situation was dire in many respects in the capital’s northern outskirts and Thailand’s central provinces, which suffered the worst of the flooding after heavy monsoon rains since July.

Off a highway heading north of the city, Associated Press reporters found people scrambling for safety in flooded streets.

The Thai military used boats to help rescue stranded residents near a domestic airport in northern outer Bangkok that has been the flood-operations headquarters and a shelter for evacuees.

Mothers walked in hip-high water with children strapped to their backs, while other people waded through the murky water holding belongings in plastic bags atop their heads.

There are concerns the Don Muang airport itself may be vulnerable, and the European Union canceled an aid-handover ceremony scheduled there Monday due to “unforeseen circumstances.”

In Nonthaburi province, just north of Bangkok, a 7-foot (2-meter) crocodile was captured while resting on dry land outside a restaurant, presumably after pulling itself out of the surrounding floodwaters. Thai television showed the beast, which had reportedly escaped from a farm, with its snout taped shut and its scaly body covering most of a boat that was carrying it away.

An Associated Press photographer saw two crocodiles that had been killed in Nonthaburi, and unconfirmed recent reports have claimed up to 100 crocodiles may have escaped from farms in the region.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has said the waters may take up to six weeks to recede to manageable proportions around Bangkok payday loans guaranteed no fax. The government has cautioned that rumors have been quick to circulate and people should check all information, advice that follows strong criticism of the government for missteps and confusion since the crisis began.

Residents of Bangkok and its suburbs have settled into a routine of waiting and worrying.

Many are hoarding supplies, and supermarket shelves have emptied faster than they can be restocked. Bottled water, batteries and canned food were among the first items to go.

At a supermarket in central Bangkok’s business district _ which is not under immediate threat _ sandbags lined both entrances Sunday, forcing shoppers to step over to go inside. Many of the shelves were bare, with the handful of shoppers inside grabbing the few snacks that were left. Cat food and toilet paper were gone.

While larger stores in Bangkok have kept their prices fixed, smaller merchants were raising theirs in the flooded zones north of the city. A Rangsit resident, Taweetit Hongsang, complained that the price of a papaya, 10 baht (33 cents) a week ago, had shot up to 30 baht ($1).

The desperate battle to route the water away from the city has led to several conflicts in which people have used force to try to protect their own neighborhoods by removing flood barriers.

Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra said Sunday one crew of city workers was unable to carry out reinforcement of one barrier because of “a group of people opposing the mission and harassing” them. He said it was necessary to withdraw them “since they are not trained to deal with unruly and armed outsiders.”

In evident response, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said she had delegated high-ranking police officers to protect workers carrying out anti-flood duties.

The flooding that began in August has killed 356 people in Thailand and the $6 billion cost estimate could double if Bangkok is badly hit.

The flooding is the worst to hit Thailand since 1942 and is proving a major test for Yingluck’s nascent government, which took power in July after heated elections and has come under fire for not acting quickly or decisively enough to prevent major towns north of the capital from being ravaged by floodwaters.

Source

October 20, 2011

China to allow trial use of local government bonds

Filed under: Finance, Prices — Tags: , , , — Professor Besto @ 4:32 am

China has given the go-ahead for several local authorities to sell bonds as it moves to bridge financing shortfalls and prevent debt defaults by overextended provinces.

The Ministry of Finance said in a notice Thursday that Shanghai, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces and Shenzhen, a special economic zone bordering Hong Kong, would be allowed to issue three-year and five-year bonds on a trial basis, subject to quotas.

China normally prohibits local governments from issuing bonds directly or from taking bank loans, confining such bonds to those issued by the central government on their behalf.

Local governments owe about 10.7 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion) in debt through financing vehicles set up to support construction projects. Issuing bonds would help them to honor those obligations.

Instructions outlined by the ministry suggests plans for strict central government oversight of the program.

Bond quotas set for one year cannot be carried over to another, it says.

Funds raised by local government bond sales will be kept in a special account of the finance ministry which will oversee payment of interest and principal.

The ministry said the local governments also should provide timely information to the public regarding local economic and financial conditions.

With highway and railway projects running short of cash, Zhejiang province, west of Shanghai, plans to issue 8 billion yuan ($1.3 billion) worth of bonds to fund infrastructure projects this year, the official Xinhua News Agency reported earlier.

It characterized the plan as the beginning of a shift in how local government projects are financed.

Much of the money is also expected to be earmarked for so-called “affordable housing” projects.

Cities have been ordered to speed up construction of such housing, but many already debt-encumbered localities reportedly lack the financial wherewithal to follow through.

Source

October 15, 2011

Newspaper woes hang over Gannett’s 3Q results

Filed under: legal, money — Tags: , , , — Professor Besto @ 7:44 am

Gannett Co.’s new CEO took over just in time to discuss third-quarter earnings, which are expected to reflect depressing trends facing the largest U.S. newspaper publisher. The numbers are due out before the stock market opens Monday.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Gannett’s results will be broken down by Gracia Martore, who was named the company’s CEO earlier this month after Craig Dubow resigned for health reasons. The biggest concern for investors is whether its long-running slump in print advertising worsened during the July-September period. The owner of USA Today and more than 80 other dailies has already warned investors that advertising revenue in its newspaper division fell in the quarter, extending a decline that began in 2006.

It will be a bad sign if the decline is worse than the 7 percent year-over-year decline that the company’s newspapers suffered in the April-June period.

Gannett’s situation isn’t unusual. As advertisers continue to spend more on the Internet, most major newspaper publishers have struggled. Newspapers have garnered some digital advertising, but those gains haven’t come close to making up for losses on the print side.

Gannett has more of a cushion than some of its peers because it also owns 23 television stations.

To help offset the sharp drop in advertising, Gannett and other newspaper publishers have resorted to layoffs and furloughs.

WHY IT MATTERS: Gannett, which is based in McLean, Va., will be the first major U.S. newspaper owner to report its third-quarter results, giving investors a better sense how the industry is holding up as the economy sputters.

WHAT’S EXPECTED: Analysts polled by FactSet expect Gannett to earn 44 cents per share on revenue of $1.28 billion.

LAST YEAR’S QUARTER: Gannett earned $101 million, or 43 cents per share, on revenue of $1.31 billion.

Source

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