Actual finance blog

India’s policy makers can’t ignore the link between higher food costs and inflation, central bank Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said, signaling the monetary authority may quicken measures to curb the increase in prices.

Gokarn is the second official in as many days to flag concerns over accelerating inflation after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s economic adviser on Dec. 3 said rising food prices may “require monetary policy action.” The wholesale food-price index climbed to an 11-month high in November, a government report showed this week.

“Persistently rising food prices may spill over into inflation expectation” and “do have an expectation impact,” Gokarn told reporters in New Delhi today. “We can’t ignore that linkage.”

India’s gross domestic product expanded 7.9 percent in the three months to Sept. 30 from a year earlier, the fastest pace in six quarters, as a $130 billion cash injection through monetary stimulus shielded the $1.2 trillion economy from a global recession. China grew at a faster pace of 8.9 percent last quarter, while U.S. GDP rose 2.8 percent, Europe contracted 4.1 percent and South Korea increased 0.9 percent.

“With strong GDP growth and rising inflation, we think the pressure is rising on the Reserve Bank of India to partially pull back the monetary stimulus,” said Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays Capital in Singapore no faxing 1 hour payday loans. Accelerating inflation will likely “trigger action in the form of hikes in the cash-reserve ratio.”

Bonds Drop

Benchmark 10-year Indian government bonds posted their worst week since June as Chakravarthy Rangarajan, chairman of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council said higher food prices may push up wages and manufacturing costs. The Reserve Bank may start raising interest rates as early as January, increasing borrowing costs by 3 percentage points in 2010, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a research report dated Dec. 3.

The index of wholesale primary articles, comprising mainly of food items such as pulses, fruits, vegetables and cereals, rose 12.53 percent in the week to Nov. 21, the highest since November 2008, a government report showed Dec. 3. The central bank forecasts wholesale-price inflation at 6.5 percent by March 31 from 1.34 percent in October and 0.5 percent in September.

India needs to ensure that the economic recovery isn’t hurt while keeping inflationary pressures under control, Gokarn said today.

“There’s nothing off the table but all options have to be considered with the information that is available to us,” Gokarn said when asked if the central bank may consider raising the cash-reserve ratio.

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Costco Wholesale Corp is hoping that consumers are becoming more comfortable making purchases as the No. 1 U.S. warehouse club operator heads into the year-end holiday shopping season.

“We still are cautious but are keeping our fingers crossed that people are buying a little bit,” said Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti on Wednesday.

He made the comments at the retailer’s investor day, which was held in its new store in Manhattan.

Costco’s monthly same-store sales fell through much of this year as shoppers shunned purchases of its discretionary merchandise, like jewelry and clothes. Unlike a year ago, when gasoline prices rose to record levels, Costco received no recent sales boost from the price of gas.

But same-store sales returned to positive territory in September and October, marking an improvement from August, when same-store sales fell 2 percent. The retailer has also said it is seeing demand return for products besides food, like sporting goods, clothes and cameras.

Costco also said at the meeting that it plans to ramp up store openings in the next five years. While the majority of those new stores will be opened in the United States, it said it sees potential to expand its store base in Japan, Taiwan, Korea and Australia.

R.J. Hottovy, an analyst with Morningstar, said he was pleased with what he heard at the meeting, and it reinforced his view that Costco has a strong business model.

“In the downward economic cycle that we’re in, I think the value proposition that Costco provides, it really sells itself,” Hottovy said payday cash advance loans.

OPENING PLANS ACROSS THE GLOBE

Costco operated 559 warehouses as of August 30, the end of its fiscal year. That including 406 clubs in the United States and Puerto Rico; 77 in Canada, 21 in the United Kingdom, seven in Korea, six in Taiwan, nine in Japan, 32 in Mexico and one in Australia.

It expects to open 15 to 20 stores this current 2010 fiscal year, up to 20 stores in each of its fiscal years 2011 and 2012, and more than 25 in fiscal years 2013 and 2014.

In Japan, Taiwan and Korea, where business is performing well, Costco said it has the capacity to operate 100 stores. In Australia, where it recently opened its first location, it has the capacity to operate roughly 20 stores, it said.

CEO Jim Sinegal said Costco does not plan to raise prices to boost margins. Instead, he said Costco will be smarter about the products it stocks on shelves to reduce costs — like making round jars square so that more can fit on a shelf or reducing the size of packaging.

“We prefer to make our additional margin by being smarter, by buying better and being more efficient in our business,” Sinegal said.

He also said a reasonable goal for Costco’s operating profit margin would be about 3.5 percent. While that is slimmer than the 4 percent margin he discussed during the boom years, it is still fatter than some analysts have expected. 

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Ford Motor reported a surprise profit for the third quarter Monday, helped by a bump in sales from the Cash for Clunkers program, a reduced cost structure and problems at its U.S. rivals.

The company also announced plans late Monday to raise $3 billion in order to further boost its balance sheet.

The only major U.S. automaker not to file for bankruptcy this year earned $997 million, or 29 cents a share, compared to a loss of $161 million, or 7 cents a share on that basis a year earlier.

Excluding special items, Ford reported a profit of $873 million, or 26 cents a share, in the period. Analysts had been forecasting a loss of 12 cents a share for the quarter on this basis. Ford said it was the first pre-tax operating profit since the start of 2008.

In a separate announcement, Ford said it will issue $1 billion in common stock and $2 billion of debt that will be convertible to common shares. The company said it will start issuing them beginning next month. The automaker also said it hopes to extend the maturity of its revolving credit facility by two years to 2013.

"We expect the moves will enhance Ford’s automotive liquidity and over time reduce the company’s debt burden, providing an additional cushion given the still uncertain state of the economy," said Ford President and CEO Alan Mulally in a statement.

The company said cost cutting during the past year and an improved outlook for sales leads it to believe Ford will be "solidly profitable" in 2011, excluding special items.

That’s the most bullish outlook Ford has offered investors since it started losing money in 2005. The company had previously said it was looking for break-even or better results that year.

Turning the corner. The guidance raised hopes that the company may have turned the corner on nearly five years of losses for its key North American auto operations.

"Our third quarter results clearly show that Ford is making tremendous progress despite the prolonged slump in the global economy," said Mulally.

The company said it lowered its structural costs by $1 billion compared to a year earlier, with about half of that improvement coming in North America.

While Ford did not need federal assistance or a bankruptcy reorganization as rivals General Motors and Chrysler did, it was able to win concessions from its unions that resulted in a $300 million structural cost reduction. Ford also said it paid about $200 million less for materials and commodities in the quarter.

Ford still faces some potential problems in the near term. In a vote announced Monday afternoon, the United Auto Workers union rank and file rejected additional contract concessions sought by Ford management, including a freeze on entry level wages.

And Ford said it expects sharp declines in European sales in the next year partly because an even larger Cash for Clunkers there this year will steal demand from future months.

Still, Mulally told investors that the company remains hopeful it could be profitable in 2010, not just by 2011, and that the longer time frame in the new guidance is a way of being cautious.

"The reason we couched it that way is we’re just not sure about the strength of the recovery," Mulally said. Ford will detail further guidance on 2010 profits when it reports fourth-quarter results in January.

Digesting the details. Results in North America were helped by much stronger sales than a year earlier, particularly in the United States, where the company was one of the prime beneficiaries of the Cash for Clunkers program that gave buyers up to $4,500 if they traded in a gas guzzler for a more fuel efficient vehicle.

Even without the Cash for Clunkers program, which lifted the whole industry out of the doldrums, Ford made gains on many of its rivals during the quarter.

During the quarter, Ford’s U.S. market share rose by 2.2 percentage points to 14.6%. Ford benefited from steep market share declines at GM and Chrysler in the wake of their bankruptcies, but it also posted bigger market share gains than Japanese rivals such as Toyota Motor (TM) and Honda Motor (HMC).

Shares of Ford (F, Fortune 500) gained more than 8% Monday.

The company reported overall revenue of $30.9 billion in the quarter, down $800 million from the same period a year ago due to a decrease in revenue at its Ford Credit unit.

Ford said that global auto sales rose $100 million from the third quarter of 2008, to $27.9 billion. It sold 1.23 million vehicles worldwide, up 5% from a year earlier, and its average net pricing also improved along with its sales volume. Auto revenue in North America soared by $2.9 billion, or 27%, to $13.7 billion.

Ford also said it made money on its auto operations, and that it reported positive cash flow of $1.3 billion from its auto businesses. The company had been burning through significant amounts of cash every quarter since the second quarter of 2007 as it suffered from years of ongoing losses.

"While we still face a challenging road ahead, our [company] transformation plan is working and our underlying business continues to grow stronger," Mulally added.

Ford’s automotive unit earned $446 million in the quarter, compared to a loss of $2.9 billion in the year-earlier period, as the company’s core auto operations in North America returned to profitability for the first time since the first half of 2005. 

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Baidu’s hasty move to a new Internet ad system marks a rare stumble for China’s dominant search engine, opening a window of opportunity for others salivating for a piece of the country’s fast-growing online market.

Baidu, whose name is practically synonymous with Internet search in China, surprised investors when it revealed transition to its new Phoenix Nest system will lead to softer revenues into next year as customers adjust, sending its stock down sharply.

The news was music to others, such as Sina Corp and global search leader Google, looking for a bigger piece of the pie in the world’s biggest Internet market with 235 million search users in June, up about a third from a year ago.

“In the short term Baidu could possibly lose market share to Google,” said JP Morgan analyst Dick Wei.

“From the end user perspective, they aren’t going to see much of a difference, but from the advertisers perspective, if you look at monetization market share, it (Baidu’s market share) could be a bit lower in the next few months,” he said.

Baidu expects to lose some customers and have lower revenue in the near term after the system is fully rolled out.

Baidu shares, which shed 0.5 percent to close at $432.97 during regular trading hours in New York, fell more than 13 percent in after-hours trade to $375.99 after the company gave its revenue forecast that was well below Wall Street estimates.

The glitch isn’t the first for Baidu, which was previously accused by some of the world’s biggest music companies of allowing illegal trading of copyrighted songs over its system.

But the stumble could have more serious implications as it relates directly to the company’s revenue generation model.

ONLINE PLAYERS

Baidu, whose name comes from an ancient Chinese poem, is just one of a growing field of upstart firms seeking to cash in on China’s rapidly growing Internet, home to a search market valued at 1.8 billion yuan ($264 million) in the second quarter.

Online game companies such as Shanda Games and NetEase vie for dominance in the country’s Internet gaming market worth nearly $1 billion in the second quarter, while portal operators such as Sina and Sohu.com also spar for dominance in the portal space.

In an Internet market where two or three names usually control each space, Baidu stands out because of its single-handed dominance of China Internet search.

Several Chinese Internet firms such as NetEase, Perfect World and Baidu, have seen their share prices skyrocket this year. However, softer-than-expected fourth quarter guidance from two other companies may further dampen investor sentiment.

Sohu and its recently listed gaming unit Changyou.com warned on Monday that current-quarter revenue would come in below Wall Street estimates, sending their shares down. 

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The U.S. government’s “pay czar” played a critical role in Citigroup’s decision to sell off its lucrative commodities trading business, Phibro, a source familiar with the matter said Friday.

The sale of the unit to Occidental Petroleum Corp relieves beleaguered Citigroup of a massive political headache– what to do with Phibro trader Andrew Hall and his paycheck of up to $100 million.

Hall has become the poster child of Wall Street’s top earners; and while pay czar Kenneth Feinberg would have limited power over his pay this year, he would undoubtedly have dramatically restructured Hall’s pay in future years.

Feinberg made it clear to Citigroup that Hall would not be able to keep earning his eye-popping paychecks, leaving Citigroup with the decision of selling off Phibro and parting with Hall or keeping Phibro but losing the unit’s moneymaker, according to the source.

The source spoke anonymously because the negotiations between Citigroup and the pay czar have not been made public.

Citigroup’s decision to offload both Phibro, and so Hall, demonstrates the extent of Feinberg’s power over the seven firms that have received “exceptional assistance” from the government.

The other firms are Bank of America Corp, American International Group Inc, Chrysler Group LLC, General Motors Co, Chrysler Financial and GMAC.

Alan Johnson, a Wall Street compensation consultant, said the deal helped Citigroup unload what was becoming “an embarrassment on line pay day loans.”

Occidental did not disclose the terms of the deal but said that its net investment would be about $250 million and that it was paying roughly the net asset value of the business.

Citigroup has received multiple bailouts from the government, including $45 billion from the U.S. Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program.

POWER PLAY

Feinberg is in the thick of a 60-day intensive review of the pay contracts for the top 25 earners at the seven firms, in which he has the power to approve or renegotiate their compensation packages.

Citigroup’s announcement that it is shedding Phibro comes just three weeks before Feinberg’s rulings are due.

Feinberg did not have explicit authority to approve or reject Hall’s pay for this year because the contract was signed before a cut-off date of February 11, 2009.

But in a demonstration of the reach of Feinberg’s powers, he would still have a say over Hall’s future pay. He would have likely forced much more of it to be in equity that vested over a longer time horizon, crimping Hall’s ability to take home cash. 

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Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd told Reuters Television on Thursday he sees no obstacles in the way of the Senate reconfirming Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve chairman.

Asked in an interview if he saw any roadblocks to the reconfirmation, Dodd said, “No, I don’t think so.”

“I’ve indicated I want to be supportive. I think Ben Bernanke’s done a very good job, particularly in the last year or so. I think that view is embraced by a lot of people,” said Dodd, a Democrat.

President Barack Obama nominated Bernanke to a second term as Fed chairman in August quick pay day loan. His four-year term expires in January.

“The chairman’s not going anywhere,” Dodd said.

“We’re so preoccupied now with trying to pull together the modernization of the financial structure, which is taking a lot of time, as it should.”

(Reporting by Kevin Drawbaugh and Corbett Daly; editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

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Recession-pounded consumers who find Target, Kohl’s and even Wal-Mart a bit pricey are moving down to the dollar stores.

As many retailers suffer — quarterly profits dipped this summer at mighty Wal-Mart, for example — dollar stores are opening by the hundreds. And some locate in well-to-do suburbs that once seemed out of reach for chains near the bottom of the retail barrel.

Growth by Dollar Tree, Family Dollar and Dollar General — the Big Three of discount retailing — has become a lifeline to commercial property owners struggling against rising vacancy rates.

"It’s a fascinating trend consistent with neoclassic economic theory," said Bob Lewis, president of Development Strategies, an economic development consultant in St. Louis. "It relates to marginal utility and inferior goods concepts. And the need for commercial real estate owners to fill up space."

Dollar Tree, with nearly two dozen stores in the St. Louis area, is about to open another store at the Heritage Place shopping center on Olive Boulevard in Creve Coeur. The latest Dollar Tree, scheduled to open Thursday, is taking space formerly occupied by Famous Footwear, which moved in July to a smaller spot.

Marginal utility? Inferior goods? Lewis doesn’t equate inferior with poor quality. He means inexpensive items.

"You can survive on ramen noodles if you’re poor," Lewis said. "You don’t buy more of them after you get a good job. But if you’re poor, inferior goods go up in demand."

Marginal utility relates to shopping "ambience," he said. While many shoppers prefer the surroundings of upscale stores, some find that dollar-store shopping for staple items bestows smart-shopper status, Lewis said.

"It’s a fascinating little situation we have going on here," he added. "If you’re buying the things you might normally pick up at Target or Wal-Mart for a few pennies more, why not use the dollar place?"

Shopping center owners benefit by getting occupants for millions of square feet of retail space payday loans.

"Otherwise, it would probably stay vacant or be rented out to a dance studio, or something, just so that the owners can generate a bit of income and keep the lights on," Lewis said.

Mike Swearngin, vice president of Pace Properties, said Dollar Tree’s presence at Heritage Place helps boost the center’s occupancy to 90 percent, up from 80 percent a year ago. He said Dollar Tree will add stability to Heritage Place and draw the same women who already shop at the center’s Marshalls and TJ Maxx stores.

"It’s the type of retailer that seems to be relatively recession-proof," Swearngin said.

In August, Dollar Tree, based in Chesapeake, Va., reported a 50 percent jump in per-share quarterly earnings. Sales rose 12 percent, to $1.22 billion. Dollar Tree had 3,717 stores, 200 more than a year earlier. Spokeswoman Shelley Davis said the company knows the recession is sending shoppers its way from more upscale places.

"We have a sense we are benefiting from trade downs," she said. "But we also feel our regular loyal customers are shopping us more. We do feel that Dollar Tree can operate in a booming or recovering economy."

She said the 9,600-square-foot Creve Coeur outlet is within the company’s ideal size.

Dollar Tree isn’t alone in enjoying growth. Dollar General Co.’s latest quarterly profit tripled, to $93.6 million, from $27.7 million a year earlier. Sales rose 11 percent, to $2.91 billion. The Goodlettsville, Tenn., company has said it will open 500 stores in addition to the 8,577 it had at the end of July.

Dollar General already has more than 600 stores in Missouri and Illinois, including about 20 in the St. Louis area. Family Dollar has about 30 area stores. The region’s next Family Dollar will open in January at 9070 West Florissant Avenue in Ferguson.

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CIT Group Inc is eyeing a loan of up to $7 billion if a planned debt exchange offer fails and the commercial lender has to file for pre-packaged bankruptcy, two sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

The board of the lender, which caters to small and mid-sized businesses, was meeting on Thursday to consider a restructuring plan, a third source familiar with the matter said.

Under the terms of a rescue loan CIT received in July, Thursday is the deadline for the company to come up with a restructuring plan agreeable to lenders.

CIT plans to offer its unsecured debt holders two options — either exchange their debt voluntarily or face a pre-packaged bankruptcy.

If the company goes through a pre-packaged bankruptcy, it would need a debtor-in-possession (DIP) loan to finance it during the process. The company is eyeing a DIP loan of $5 billion to $7 billion, the sources said. No such loan has yet been finalized, they said.

CIT declined to comment. The sources declined to be identified because talks are not public.

CIT shares closed down 15 cents, or 12.4 percent, at $1.06 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Its bonds were mixed. The 7.625 percent bond due 2012 was the most actively traded earlier in the day, rising 1.5 cents to 66 cents on the dollar, according to MarketAxess.

RESTRUCTURING PLAN

In a regulatory filing on Thursday, CIT said it intends to restructure outside court through an exchange offer, but may have to file for pre-packaged bankruptcy if it was unsuccessful.

If neither of those work, CIT will likely have to file for bankruptcy without an agreed on plan, which may lead to asset liquidations, it said in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

On Tuesday, sources told Reuters that the exchange offer is likely to essentially turn the company over to bondholders.

Debt investors would get some combination of new debt secured by assets and shares in the company. CIT’s overall debt levels would shrink.

CIT’s longer-term plan is to essentially turn itself into a bank. The company is one of scores of lenders and underwriters that relied on bond markets to fund their operations, only to suffer as the credit crunch has raged for two years.

In the filing, CIT said it expects to seek permission to transfer certain business platforms into its CIT Bank unit within 12 to 18 months after the completion of its restructuring. 

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Sara Lee Corp will sell its personal care brands like Sanex and Brylcreem for $1.87 billion (1.275 billion euros) to consumer goods giant Unilever and set a $1 billion share buyback plan, sending its stock up 6 percent.

Sara Lee also said on Friday it has seen significant interest in its household products business, which includes Ambi Pur air freshener and Kiwi shoe polish. The divestitures allow it to focus on its food and beverage businesses like Sara Lee baked goods and Hillshire Farm meats.

The deal also reinforces Anglo-Dutch Unilever’s global lead in deodorants and skin cleansing and marks the first major acquisition for new Chief Executive Paul Polman. The businesses it is acquiring from Sara Lee see 85 percent of their sales in Europe.

Sara Lee CEO Brenda Barnes said she expected the entire household and body care business to be reported as discontinued operations in the current fiscal first quarter, a sign the company expects to be able to sell the other businesses.

“As the process proceeded, it became clear that there were different people who had far more interest in different pieces of this,” Barnes told Reuters in an interview. She did not say which companies were interested in which businesses.

Credit Suisse analyst Charlie Mills said the price Unilever is paying of 10 times core operating profit, or EBITDA, is not huge by industry standards, which reflects the fairly disparate collection of brands.

“We’re not convinced that this is the greatest collection of assets but another acquisition shows Unilever still moving from the back foot (cost cutting and disposals) to the front foot (volume growth and acquisitions),” he said.

KEY EUROPEAN MARKETS

Unilever says the Sanex, Radox and Duschdas brands will complement its Dove, Axe and Rexona at slightly lower prices and strengthen its European business in key markets such as Britain, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Denmark.

Sara Lee said the brands sold accounted for 55 percent of the profits from its businesses up for sale.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Kenneth Zaslow said the deal is valued at about 1.7 times sales and 15 to 16 times earnings before interest and taxes, about in line with past household personal care deals.

The rest of the businesses Sara Lee is trying to sell are likely to receive lower valuations since the household business has a lower growth rate, but Sara Lee is still likely to receive total proceeds at the higher end of BMO’s $2 billion to $2.5 billion estimate, Zaslow said in a research note.

Sara Lee also reiterated it intended to maintain its current quarterly dividend of 11 cents for the next four quarters regardless of the timing of disposals.

Sara Lee’s board also approved a $1 billion share repurchase program. The plan is in addition to 13.5 million shares remaining to be bought back under a previous share repurchase program.

Unilever Plc shares were down slightly at 17.35 pounds in London, while Sara Lee shares were up 64 cents or 6.1 percent at $11.18 in early afternoon on Friday on the New York Stock Exchange. 

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Wells Fargo & Co has fired a senior vice president after investigating reports she held lavish parties at a foreclosed beachfront Malibu house owned by the bank.

The fourth-largest U.S. bank said in a statement on Monday that it had terminated one employee, senior vice president Cheronda Guyton, who it found had violated its policies.

“We deeply regret the activities that have taken place as they do not reflect the conduct we expect of our team members,” the bank said in the statement.

Wells Fargo, which received $25 billion in government bailout money last October, was criticized earlier this year for planning events at upscale Las Vegas hotels for top mortgage employees. It said in February that it did not plan any more of these “recognition events” this year. It said at the time that such events were part of its culture, and that it believes in rewarding hard-working team members.

Guyton, who had been responsible for Wells Fargo’s foreclosed commercial properties, used the 3,800-square-foot beachfront house on Malibu Colony Drive on weekends for parties, one of which had guests arriving on a yacht, the Los Angeles Times reported, citing neighbors.

The previous owners of the house — which sits in the same California community as that of movie star Tom Hanks — had purchased it for $12 million, but lost a fortune to convicted swindler Bernie Madoff’s massive Ponzi scheme, the Times reported, citing a real estate agent.

Malibu Mayor Andy Stern told Reuters that he appreciated the fact that Wells Fargo took the issue seriously.

“They seem to have done a rapid and thorough investigation. I respect that they did that,” Stern said.

Any kind of corporate misbehavior affects the institution and the industry, said Sandra Chrystal, who teaches business ethics and communications at University of Southern California. Chrystal said a company committee likely made the decision to let Guyton go.

“If anything the corporate culture is now more sensitive to issues like this because of the financial problems and impression that anyone in the financial industry is wealthy or having a good time at the expense of the common public,” Chrystal said.

A resident in the enclave told Reuters on Sunday that Guyton had parties but that they weren’t excessive.

“It’s shocking what she did. I really question her judgment. How many other bank executives would make a decision like that?” said the resident, who asked not to be identified.

Wells Fargo, which acquired troubled bank Wachovia Corp at year end, said last week that it had taken possession of the Southern California property in May and withheld it from the market for an agreed-upon period of time. It said its policy prohibited personal use of properties held by the bank.

Wells Fargo said earlier this month that it would repay its bailout funds without raising additional capital, but did not give a timeframe. Other large banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley repaid money from the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Plan in June.

Shares in the bank closed on Monday up 1.8 percent at $27.92.

(Additional reporting by Lisa Baertlein and Gabriel Madway; Editing by Toni Reinhold, Gary Hill)

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