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For the stock market, it was a triumphant first quarter. But for earnings growth, the past three months were just ho-hum.

Analysts are expecting earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index to decline 0.1 percent compared to a year ago, according to FactSet. It’s a tiny number but a significant turning point. Earnings growth was on a winning streak for the previous nine quarters. Year-over-year earnings growth has been at least 10 percent for all but the most recent period, when it was 6 percent.

The reasons for the expected slowdown range from global (a weak Europe hurts everybody) to mathematical (it’s hard to top double-digit quarters). Whatever the cause, the stagnation in earnings growth is a stark reminder that the economy’s problems are far from solved. Just three months ago, analysts were predicting 3 percent earnings growth for the first quarter.

We’ll soon see if the expectations are on target. Earnings season gets under way Tuesday when the aluminum producer Alcoa becomes the first major U.S. company to release its first-quarter results.

Should this batch of earnings contain a lot of bad surprises, it could upend a stock market rally that pushed the S&P 500 index up 12 percent in the first three months of the year.

Here’s what you need to know:

_Are earnings really that bad?

It depends on how you look at it. People are blaming the slowdown on several factors including higher oil prices and Europe’s debt crisis. Those are legitimate concerns. High prices for oil and gas make it more expensive for companies to ship their products and leave people with less money to spend on other things. Europe’s debt crisis means that the U.S. can’t sell as many products there. It also hurts fast-growing economies like China and India that export to Europe. That, in turn, affects U.S. companies that count on growth in emerging markets to boost their own sales.

Keep in mind that this deceleration follows an extended period of big gains. Earnings surged 19 percent in the first quarter of 2011, and that was on top of 53 percent growth the year before as companies bounced back from a dismal first quarter of 2009. Aggregate earnings of companies in the S&P 500 were $96 per share last year, a record, according to FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters. Investors realize that companies can’t sustain warp speed indefinitely.

“It’s supposed to be a very weak quarter,” says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, “but Wall Street is not freaking out because they understand why.”

_Does the market care about earnings?

Sure, to an extent. More often than not, a company’s stock moves in the same direction as its earnings.

Investors tend to trade on what they expect to happen in the coming months. By the time a company actually announces its quarterly results, chances are they’ve already been baked into the stock price and won’t have much of an immediate effect unless there’s a big surprise. A company’s predictions about the future are what investors really listen to.

“A lot of what we’re going to get now,” Butters says, “is already in the rear-view mirror.”

Butters also notes the outsized impact of Apple’s earnings on the overall figure for the S&P 500. Strip out Apple, Butters says, and the prediction for the first quarter falls from minus 0.1 percent to minus 1.6 percent.

Besides, one quarter of earnings growth hardly means a company is solid. Earnings can be a deceptive measurement, and will rise even when revenue falls if a company slashes jobs and other expenses. Share buybacks and accounting charges can also inflate profits and mask a company’s struggles.

“You can always juggle earnings,” says Stovall. “It’s a lot harder to fudge sales.”

_What’s the big picture?

Despite all the hubbub about The End of Earnings Growth, analysts are expecting only a short-term decline. Earnings growth is expected to return to 7 percent in the second quarter and 5 percent in the third quarter, according to FactSet. Bigger jumps of 16 percent, 14 percent and 13 percent are predicted for the three quarters after that, through the middle of 2013. Analysts also expect per-share earnings in the S&P to rise to more than $105 in 2012, another record, according to Butters.

That reflects investors’ belief that Europe will stabilize by the end of the year. Even if it doesn’t, the thinking goes, companies will have adjusted to turmoil in Europe as a new normal that they can function under, rather than something that sets off constant fears of another cataclysm.

Machinery company Caterpillar said in its last earnings call that the company expects its sales in Europe to continue to rise despite the problems there.

“It’s been going on a long time and hasn’t tanked the place yet,” said chief financial officer Edward Rapp. “We don’t think it will.”

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The European Central Bank held its main interest rate at 1.0 percent on Wednesday as persistently high inflation offset pressure to respond to the euro zone’s shaky economic recovery.

The ECB also said the interest rate on its deposit facility would remain at 0.25 percent, and the rate on the marginal lending facility would stay at 1.75 percent.

ECB President Mario Draghi will explain the Governing Council’s decision at a 8.30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) news conference cash advance payday loan.

Markets are looking for hints on how long the ECB is planning to keep its wait-and-see stance on interest rates.

They also expect Draghi to be grilled on whether the central bank has started discussing exiting from its non-standard measures, which include pushing a 1-trillion-euro wall of cash into money markets in 3-year loans.

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FRANKFURT, Germany _ Europe is searching for something to get growth going again and pull the eurozone’s heavily indebted countries out of their troubles _ but with little luck.

Unemployment and manufacturing indicators suggest the 17 countries that use the euro are headed for an official recession. Adding to these worrying signs is the realization that many of the traditional tools to give growth a shove _ government spending, tax cuts and lower central bank interest rates _ are off the table.

The absence of growth will be a big concern for European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and the bank’s governing council when they meet Wednesday to decide the eurozone’s benchmark refinancing rate. No change in the rate _ which is at a record low of 1 percent _ is expected this time around.

A recent round of economic indicators will be prominent in the governing council’s minds when it meets. On Monday, the Markit index of industrial activity for the eurozone strongly suggested that the region’s economy is still contracting after shrinking 0.3 percent in the last three months of 2011. Two straight quarters of falling output are a common definition of recession. Meanwhile, unemployment across the 17-country group crept up to a record 10.8 percent, official figures also released on Monday showed. And national jobless rates paint an even more disturbing picture _ especially among the countries hit worst by the debt crisis: Spain at 23.6 percent unemployed, Greece 21.0 percent, Ireland 14.7 percent.

The European Union’s executive commission estimates that the eurozone economy will shrink by 0.3 percent this year, while Greece faces shrinkage of 4.4 percent in the fifth year of a deep recession. Italy faces 1.3 drop in output according to commission forecasts while Spain will fall 1.0 percent.

Short-term answers are scarce. The debt crisis hitting the eurozone means governments can no longer spend their way out of a downturn_ in fact, they are doing the opposite and embarking on rounds of austerity cuts.

On top of this, the ECB is restrained from cutting interest rates by the eurozone’s stubbornly high inflation rate, which has been pushed up oil prices and some taxes to 2.6 percent. The ECB is concentrating on getting price increases down to under 2 percent and lowering interest rates would push inflation up.

The region could even face the prospect of so-called “stagflation” _ a period of no or very little economic growth accompanied by inflation _ according to Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING.

“The fact that the recovery of the eurozone economy would be slow and bumpy was already clear,” Brzeski wrote in a note to investors.

“Now, high energy prices have even increased the risk of stagflation in the eurozone, a worst-case scenario which should cause concern at the Eurotower in coming months” _ a reference to the ECB’s Frankfurt skyscraper headquarters payday loans.

Brzeski adds that the stubborn inflation rate meant that “further rate cuts should be off the table”.

Another weapon in the ECB’s arsenal has also put beyond use. The (EURO)1 trillion program of “all-you-can-eat” loans to banks in December and February did manage to take some heat off the debt crisis that was crippling governments including Spain and Italy. Some banks used the cheap money flooding the markets to snap up government debt. The program has helped lower costs at which governments borrow on the financial markets and stopped the recession from becoming much deeper.

But the ECB loans are seen as a stopgap at best. The bank is currently in a holding pattern before it can start further, similar, measures as it waits to see whether that money finds its way through to loans to businesses and the wider economy.

The problem remains: Countries that don’t slash spending risk being unable to borrow money from bond investors because the borrowing costs set by those investors _ the so-called yields _ are too high. Once they are of cut off from the bond market by prohibitively high yields, a bailout is the only alternative to default. Greece, Ireland and Portugal have already been forced to seek help from the other eurozone member countries and the International Monetary Fund.

Spanish and Italian yields were hitting the dangerously high levels around 7 percent late last year before the ECB stepped in with its cheap loans. The countries’ yields dropped to more manageable levels, but are beginning to creep up again. Spanish 10-year bond yields have edged up to 5.42 percent on Tuesday, from under 5 percent a month ago. Italy’s 10-year bonds yielded 5.15 percent, also up from under 5 percent last month.

The solution to the debt crisis, eurozone officials, the ECB and economists all say, is structural reforms to make indebted countries more business-friendly by slashing regulation and eliminating costly restrictive labour practices.

As the economy gets bigger, the relative size of the debt pile shrinks, and higher tax revenues and stronger finances reassure bond investors _ so they will loan money at affordable rates.

But those changes to labor markets take time to win approval in parliaments _ often against resistance from labor and business special interests. Then they may years to show results in terms of higher growth.

“The kind of structural reforms that we are talking about will take five, six, seven years to really have a full impact,” said Guntram Wolff, deputy director of the Bruegel research institute in Brussels.

For short-term growth, aside from the ECB loans, “we really don’t have a story there,” Wolff warns.

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Asian stock markets rose Monday after a Chinese survey showed that manufacturers in the world’s No. 2 economy boosted production for a fourth straight month.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gained 0.8 percent to 10,163.59 despite businesses remaining pessimistic in the central bank’s latest “tankan” survey.

South Korea’s Kospi added 0.2 percent to 2,017.89 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.1 percent to 4,341.20. Benchmarks in Indonesia and Singapore also rose.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.7 percent to 20,419.84. Markets in mainland China are closed for a public holiday.

Chinese manufacturing gained momentum for a fourth straight month in March, helped by a recovery in the auto, tobacco and electronics sectors, though analysts said conflicting data suggest lingering weakness.

The state-affiliated China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said Sunday that its purchasing managers index, or PMI, rose 2.1 points to 53.1 in March, up from February’s 51.0 and January’s 50.5. A reading above 50 signifies expansion.

A rise in new factory orders suggests a recovery in some industries, though a second set of data, from HSBC, said that after adjusting for seasonal factors, its PMI index for China for March was 48.3, down from 49.6.

HSBC’S index, which tends to reflect trends in the export sector more strongly than the official index, has remained below 50 for five straight months, and recorded its lowest average reading in three years in the first quarter, HSBC said.

Analysts at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong said called the official reading on China manufacturing “surprisingly upbeat” and said set the stage for a strong week in stock markets fast cash advance.

“Investors will watch PMI readings from other regional economies, including Korea, Taiwan and India. If they also improve, the story of Asia regaining momentum … would provide more lasting support for markets,” Credit Agricole said in a report.

The data from China boosted Australia’s raw materials sector, whose fortunes are largely tied to Chinese demand. BHP Billiton, the world’s largest mining company, jumped 2.3 percent. Fortescue Metals Group gained 1.7 percent. Rio Tinto Ltd. rose 1.6 percent.

Rising consumer spending boosted U.S. stocks on Friday, and Wall Street closed its best first quarter since 1998.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.5 percent to close at 13,212.04. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.4 percent to close at 1,408.47. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.1 percent to 3,091.57.

For the quarter, the Dow posted an 8 percent gain and the S&P a 12 percent gain, the best for those indexes in 14 years. The gain was 19 percent for the Nasdaq, its best since 1991.

Benchmark oil for May delivery was up 31 cents to $103.33 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 24 cents to settle at $103.02 per barrel in New York on Friday.

In currencies, the euro rose to $1.3341 from $1.3334 late Friday in New York. The dollar fell to 83.15 yen from 82.86 yen.

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The economy in the U.S. grew at a 3 percent annual rate in the last three months of 2011, the same as previously estimated, while corporate profits climbed at the slowest pace in three years, raising the risk that business investment and hiring will cool.

The increase in gross domestic product was the biggest in more than a year and followed a 1.8 percent gain in the prior period, revised figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Company earnings were up 0.9 percent from the third quarter, the smallest advance since the last three months of 2008.

While the report showed business spending on new equipment and software climbed more the previously estimated, figures this month indicate outlays are slowing following the expiration of a government tax credit. Consumers may be poised to take a leading role in the expansion as the biggest increase in employment since 2006 gives households the confidence and means to spend.

The number of first-time filers for unemployment benefits fell to a four-year low last week, hinting that solid job growth likely continued in March.

About 348,000 people filed for initial jobless claims in the week ended March 17, down from the previous week’s 353,000 claims, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

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Obama battles job crisis

Before Obama even took office, America had lost 4.4 million jobs. Track his progress since then.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had predicted the newly unemployed would file 355,000 claims payday loans for bad credit.

Unemployment claims are considered a key indicator of the job market’s strength, and recently they have fallen back to levels consistent with a healthier labor market.

Check the unemployment rate in your state

Even when the economy was stronger in 2005 and 2006, it was not uncommon to see Americans file around 350,000 new claims a week, due to usual turnover.

Employers have now added more than 200,000 jobs each month since December, and a decline in unemployment claims suggests job growth may have continued at that pace in March, said Jennifer Lee, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets.

Since the initial claims number can be volatile from week to week, economists often look to the four-week moving average as a broader gauge of the labor market’s health. Lately, that figure has also been on a gradual decline.

Meanwhile, continuing claims fell. About 3.35 million people filed for their second week of unemployment benefits or more in the week ended March 3, the most recent data available. That’s down 9,000 from the previous week.  

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An Iraqi police official says 17 detainees have broken out of prison in a northern city.

Police spokesman in Kirkuk city Brig. Gen. Sarhat Qadir said Friday that 10 of those who escaped from an interior ministry detention center were al-Qaida-affiliated detainees.

Qadir said the detainees escaped at dawn from a small window using rope made of blankets. Police started a manhunt to find them, he said.

Kirkuk, which is 180 miles (290 kilometers) north of Baghdad, is the main oil hub in northern Iraq. It’s been the scene of sporadic insurgent violence and ongoing tensions between the region’s three main groups _ Kurds, Arabs and Turkomen.

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Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly dropped in March as this year

Apple’s decision to keep the new iPad’s size nearly identical to the iPad 2 is giving case makers some wiggle room — literally.

The third-generation iPad, set to hit stores March 16, will be less than a millimeter thicker than the last one. It doesn’t sound like much, but for makers of plastic, wood or metal tablet cases, it means manufacturing changes that can keep their products from store shelves during the pivotal first few weeks after a release.

Apple doesn’t announce its product specs in advance, so manufacturers find out about changes at the same time as everyone else. The best prepared are the ones that gambled and started making a tablet case with enough space inside to house either the iPad 2 or a slightly modified version.

The moment of truth for BodyGuardz came when Apple (, Fortune 500) CEO Tim Cook unveiled the new iPad’s dimensions on Wednesday.

Dain Hodson, BodyGuardz’s chief operating officer, was following tech blog Engadget’s live coverage of the event. When news came that the new model would be "9.4 millimeters thin," Hodson immediately reached for the tape measure in his drawer.

New 4G iPad marks the beginning of the end for 3G

Cradling the phone on his shoulder, he carefully measured the plastic production sample case that had just arrived from China.

"Looks like we’re good," he announced with relief. "That’s everything. That’s the starting gun for us."

BodyGuardz will now ramp up production, but in reality, its manufacturing cycle started weeks ago. The Bluffdale, Utah company decided to roll the dice after a mysterious e-mail arrived two months ago. The message came from an unknown Chinese manufacturing company that claimed it had the secret iPad 3 specs everyone desired.

"I’m very leery when I hear that, because especially for cases, there are some companies out there that will say they have five designs they’re speculating will be the right size," Hodson said. "And many times, they’re not right. You can be one millimeter off and you’re impeding somebody from using the device correctly."

Changes in the placement of buttons, cameras, speakers and USB ports are all a nightmare for companies that start early. Wednesday’s announcement gave BodyGuardz executives some relief: It looks like the Chinese source was right, and BodyGuardz’s cases will fit both the new iPad and the previous model.

Still, Hodson admits they won’t really know it’s perfect until they can buy a new iPad next week.

"That’s the danger in this game," he said.

Other case makers aren’t rushing off the blocks.

Grove, in Portland, Ore., makes all of its bamboo-and-leather cases by hand. The company’s 23 employees pride themselves on their cases’ artistic finishes, and a pristine fit is paramount. Co-founder Ken Tomita said Grove won’t start adjusting its milling machines until an employee comes back with a model from the nearby Apple store.

Until then, he’s wrestling another dilemma: Apple’s baffling name choice. It’s not the iPad 3 or iPad HD. It’s just "the new iPad."

"Apple really threw us a curve ball," Tomita said. "We had a debate today for half an hour. We can’t just call it ‘the new iPad case.’ That’s confusing."

Until Grove figures that out, its packaging and marketing plans are on hold. But Tomita is relieved that his company doesn’t have to place its big bets in advance.

"The people who are sweating bullets are the ones who use injection molds," Tomita said.

Take the cautionary tale of Hard Candy Cases. The San Francisco company paid $50,000 last year for steel moldings after several Chinese manufacturers claimed the iPhone 4S would have a different shape and a widened home button.

It didn’t. Oops.

"You move forward based on your gut feeling and experiences in the past," said A.G. Findings CEO Hank Goradesky, whose company makes the tough Ballistic line of cases. "There are times when we’ve gambled and lost inventory and tooling."

Goradesky wasn’t willing to miss out on a moment of production time, so he’s had three executives in China overseeing manufacturing for the last two weeks. Relying on the Apple rumor mill, they guessed that the new iPad’s dimensions would be almost identical to the last model.

Wednesday’s confirmation of that was a giant relief.

"God forbid that this thing doesn’t fit and it’s in a store," Goradesky said. "You can’t explain that. Those scenarios can’t exist."  

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