Actual finance blog

Just two years after it was rescued and reconstituted through bankruptcy and a government bailout, General Motors Co. cruised through 2011 to post the biggest profit in its history.

The 103-year-old company, leaner and smarter under new management, cut costs by taking advantage of its size around the globe. And its new products boosted sales so much that it has reclaimed the title of world’s biggest automaker from Toyota.

GM may have a hard time breaking this record in 2012 because it is losing money in Europe and South America, and U.S. sales growth slowed in the last three months.

But the company’s performance in North America and Asia still helped it earn $7.6 billion for the year, beating the record of $6.7 billion set during the truck boom in 1997.

The profit won’t stop the debate about spending $49.5 billion in taxpayer dollars to save GM. But it did drive up the company’s stock price, which could help the government get more of its money back.

The bailout of GM and Chrysler Group LLC, begun by George W. Bush and finished by Barack Obama, remains a major issue in this year’s presidential campaign. It’s so politically charged that even a Super Bowl ad celebrating Chrysler’s rebirth caused arguments.

GM, which released its earnings Thursday, performed best in its home territory, posting a $7.2 billion pretax profit in North America. The numbers were so good that 47,500 blue-collar workers will get $7,000 profit-sharing checks, the maximum allowable under their new union contract. International Operations, which includes Asia, made $1.9 billion before taxes, but that was down from 2010.

GM’s cost cuts, and its outlook for this year helped to push up the stock price by almost 9 percent to $27.08. The company said it trimmed costs by $500 million in the fourth quarter alone mainly by consolidating advertising agencies and engineering operations. A prediction that costs wouldn’t rise this year wowed investors, especially since other automakers have forecast rising costs, said Itay Michaeli, an analyst for Citi Investment Research.

“That was a very pleasant surprise,” he said.

GM also was optimistic about sales and revenue. It sees its global market share holding steady at 11.9 percent, and if global auto sales rise as expected this year, GM’s slice of that would also increase no fax cash loans.

That’s especially promising, since GM managed to make money last year with industry-wide sales in the U.S. at a historically low 12.8 million. Sales this year could rise to 14 million.

The company expects to charge more for its cars and trucks this year, but warned that the prices could be pressured as the market shifts toward smaller, less-expensive vehicles.

CEO Dan Akerson hinted at a better year for GM in 2012, saying that the company will build on the 2011 results as it brings more new products into the market.

“The outlook here is quite favorable for earnings growth,” said Citi’s Michaeli. “They’re keeping their costs really under control.”

That’s good news for the U.S. government, which still owns 26.5 percent of the company and needs more strong earnings to push up the stock price.

The government owns 500 million shares of GM, which it got in exchange for the $49.5 billion bailout. Through earlier stock sales and loan repayments, the government has recouped about $22.3 billion of that money. The remaining shares would have to double in price and sell for around $53 for the government to get back the rest.

Despite the big annual profit and optimistic outlook, GM still lost $747 million before taxes in Europe last year, and its losses are expected to continue until a restructuring plan takes hold.

Akerson said GM will have to cut its European factory capacity to match lower sales. South America lost money, too: $122 million for the year. GM’s fourth-quarter profit fell 8 percent, and its U.S. sales growth slowed in the quarter even as more Americans bought cars and trucks.

Also, GM’s U.S. stockpile of cars and trucks is growing, and that could force it to offer discounts, especially in competitive market segments like pickup trucks and midsize cars. In January, GM’s inventory was about 620,000, enough to supply its dealers for 89 days. That’s up by more than 100,000 from a year earlier, when GM had a 68-day supply, according to Ward’s AutoInfoBank.

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Japan

Arch Coal Inc.’s fourth-quarter profit rose 48 percent on higher coal prices and increased output following purchase of rival International Coal Group Inc.

But the nation’s second-largest coal producer is painting a dimmer picture of domestic coal markets for 2012.

Like many other U.S. mining companies, Creve Coeur-based Arch will curtail output this year as inexpensive natural gas and mild weather reduce coal demand.

“Near-term market conditions have softened and we are reducing our planned production volumes to better align with weak generation and coal demand trends,” Steven F. Leer, Arch’s chief executive, said in a statement.

Specifically, Arch will reduce output at a Utah mine and it’s laying off workers in eastern Kentucky as part of a plan to reduce production by 5 million tons in 2012 creditreport. The company didn’t say how many jobs would be eliminated.

Overall, Arch said U.S. coal consumption for electricity generation could decline by more than 50 million tons this year.

Arch’s $3.5 billion purchase of ICG helped boost fourth-quarter net income to $70.9 million, or 33 cents a share, from $47.8 million, or 29 cents, in the same period a year earlier. Revenue rose 47 percent to $1.23 billion.

Excluding non-recurring costs, Arch earned 29 cents cents a share in the most recent quarter. Analysts, on average, expected the company to earn 32 cents a share.

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Denmark

BOSTON • The Federal Reserve is making it increasingly hard for investors to earn anything, unless they’re willing to accept plenty of risk. Ben Bernanke and his Fed are playing the role of adviser, encouraging Americans to get a little more adventurous by shifting savings out of low-yielding bonds and putting it to work in stocks.

The latest nudge came last month when the Fed said it doesn’t expect to raise its benchmark rate until late 2014, at the earliest. Rates have been near zero since December 2008. The latest extension means borrowers can expect another three years of low-cost loans and mortgages.

It’s more bad news for savers and retirees depending on investment income, particularly when there’s 3 percent inflation. Investors who value earning stable returns from Treasury bonds end up with little more than satisfaction that they’re faring better than people keeping money in savings accounts.

Consider that investors committing to lock up their money for a full decade were only being paid 1.8 percent for buying U.S. Treasurys last week. And yields have turned negative for investors trading 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS. On Wednesday, the yield was negative 0.28 percent. In essence, investors are willing to pay Uncle Sam to borrow their dollars for 10 years, because the opportunity to minimize losses is attractive compared with other options.

Here’s a look at three relatively low-risk alternatives to generate some income in this environment:

DIVIDEND STOCKS

Dick Bristol, 74, a retired Air Force major from Biloxi, Miss., counts on dividend-paying stocks for his retirement security. His investment portfolio is nearly 100 percent in stocks that make regular payouts, and he and his wife count on a few hundred dollars of dividends coming in each month quick payday loans.

Of course, dividend-paying stocks are not immune from market drops. And companies often cut dividends when the economy skids. But Bristol is convinced the potential returns are worth the risks.

“Keep in mind that if you invest in something that’s earning 1 to 2 percent, you’re losing out to the 3 inflation we’ve got now,” Bristol says. “Over the long run, nothing pays like dividend stocks.”

HIGH-YIELD BONDS

These bonds are issued by companies with credit problems. High-yield investors expect higher returns because there’s a greater risk of default. And they’ve gotten them recently. Mutual funds specializing in high-yield bonds have produced an average annualized return of 19 percent over the last three years.

Anne Lester, lead manager of JPMorgan Income Builder, has recently been adding to the fund’s holdings in high-yield bonds. They now make up 44 percent of a portfolio. Corporate default rates remain low and high-yields are attractively priced compared with Treasurys and other bonds, Lester says.

MUNICIPAL BONDS

Investments in the bonds of state and local governments won’t make you rich because returns are generally low. But muni bond interest payments are exempt from federal taxes. That protection may extend to state taxes if the munis are issued by the state in which the investor lives. Investors can pocket attractive returns even after taxes, because the tax hit can be sizeable for those in higher income brackets.

“Munis give an investor opportunity,” said Jim Colby, a muni bond analyst with Van Eck Associates.

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The St. Louis region is set to have its newest public company debut.

Post Holdings Inc., the branded cereal business unit of Ralcorp Holdings, will be spun off as a separate publicly traded company after markets close Friday. The spinoff was announced last July.

After the close of trading Friday, Post will replace Comstock Resources Inc. in the S&P MidCap 400 index.

Post’s brands include Honey Bunches of Oats, Grape Nuts, Raisin Bran and Pebbles cereals. Post Holdings is based at 2503 South Hanley Road in Brentwood.

Once the separation is completed, Post will trade Monday on the New York Stock Exchange under the “POST” ticker symbol. Bill Stiritz, chairman of Ralcorp, has been named Post’s new chairman and CEO. J. Patrick Mulcahy, Ralcorp’s vice chairman, will serve as chairman of the board at Ralcorp after the spinoff finalizes business card.

In filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Post signaled it will make changes to its marketing and pricing to grow sales and regain market share. Post’s market share in ready-to-eat cereals dropped from 14 percent in 2008 to 12 percent last year, according to a research note issued this week by Alexia Howard, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

St. Louis-based Ralcorp Ralcorp Holdings acquired the Post cereals business from Kraft Foods in 2008 for $2.6 billion. Ralcorp is spinning off Post to concentrate on its private-label cereals, pasta and other baked goods. After the spinoff, Ralcorp will retain up to a 20 percent ownership stake in Post.

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If Mitt Romney is elected president, he will have to make some tough choices about what to do with his personal fortune.

In order to avoid conflicts of interest and satisfy ethics watchdogs, soon-to-be presidents often sell assets or relinquish control of their investments to a trustee.

Romney, who has spent the better part of a month answering questions about his massive investment portfolio, would be one of the wealthiest presidents in history.

The former Massachusetts governor has a few options.

He could put his investments in a government-approved blind trust, convert some or all of his assets to cash, or possibly take advantage of an obscure tax break for executive branch officials.

Blind trust: Romney is no stranger to the concept of blind trusts.

After becoming governor of Massachusetts, Romney created a trust managed by Boston lawyer Bradford Malt. That’s where most of his assets, estimated to be between $85 and $264 million, are today.

But between federally required disclosure forms and the tax returns released by his campaign, the contents of Romney’s trust are easily accessible and have been widely scrutinized by the media.

It’s now far from blind.

As president, Romney would likely have to dissolve his current trust and create a new one. And this one, approved by the Office of Government Ethics, would require a truly independent trustee.

"Federal ethics guidelines for blind trusts are extremely strict," said Robert Kelner, a partner at Covington & Burling who has advised candidates and appointees on ethics. "Typically they are much stricter than what you find at the state level."

Rich, Gingrich and crazy rich

If Romney establishes a new trust, his communication with the trustee would be extremely limited, and he would not be informed of changes to his portfolio.

"He might learn the overall performance of his portfolio," Kelner said. "But he would not know anything about its particular holdings."

It’s a popular tactic.

Bill Clinton, both Bushes and Ronald Reagan put their money into a blind trust.

President George W. Bush told CNN at the end of his second term that he had "no earthly idea" what had become of his assets.

"I met the trustees eight years ago and I haven’t talked to them since," Bush said.

Unlike his immediate predecessors, Barack Obama does not have a government-approved blind trust.

Most of his assets are invested in U.S. Treasury bonds and bills, mutual funds and education savings plans for his children — hardly the kind of assets that present conflicts of interest.

Establishing blind trusts is not just popular with presidents. Other wealthy executive branch appointees have followed suit — sometimes with a little unease. Hank Paulson, who left the top job at Goldman Sachs to become Treasury Secretary, was one of them.

"Have you heard the joke, how do you make a small fortune?" Paulson quipped in 2009. "Give a large fortune to someone in a blind trust."

For Romney, who made his money by making savvy investments, relinquishing control might be particularly difficult.

"You’re turning your assets over to someone who is essentially a stranger," said Kenneth Gross, a partner at Skadden Arps Slate Meagher & Flom. "I think some people would not be entirely happy with that situation."

The Romney campaign would not elaborate on the candidate’s plans for his wealth, but said in a statement that his "assets will be arranged in a manner that comports with all rules" should he become president.

Move to cash: Perhaps the simplest option would be for Romney to liquidate his holdings.

The Clintons converted their assets to cash in June 2007 as Hillary’s campaign for president entered its final stretch, according to the New York Times.

The family’s holdings had been in a blind trust, but — like Romney — those assets were disclosed in campaign filings required by the Federal Election Commission.

Instead of creating a new blind trust, the Clintons chose to liquidate.

Romney made $42.7 million in 2 years

There is a substantial downside to taking this route. The Clinton’s likely owed huge sums of money in capital gains.

A fire sale of Romney’s assets would likely create a similar tax burden.

It’s also possible Romney could choose to divest — or sell — a targeted group of assets that are likely to cause conflicts.

But that would be difficult considering the breadth of decisions the president makes, and the vast diversification of Romney’s holdings.

"Practically everything the president does could affect individual companies," Kelner said. "Romney might find that difficult to do."

A tax benefit? Members of the executive branch who have to sell specific assets to avoid conflicts of interest are sometimes granted what is called a "certificate of divestiture" by the Office of Government Ethics.

Obtaining the certificate allows appointees to divest while deferring the payment of capital gains, provided they invest the proceeds in an approved asset like a diversified mutual fund or government bond.

The provision is designed to incentivize wealthy individuals to accept posts in the executive branch without forcing them to take a tax hit.

A president has never applied for the tax break, but law experts consulted by CNNMoney said it is conceivable the Office of Government Ethics would grant one to a president with a portfolio like Romney’s.

"It would be unprecedented," Gross said. "But I don’t know why a president wouldn’t be entitled to the same deferral of tax if he felt there was a conflict."

The tax benefit for Romney would be huge.

"Oh my god," said Robert Willens, a tax expert and professor at Columbia Business School. "He’d be right in the sweet spot. This would save him millions or tens of millions." 

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Battered by the strong yen and supply disruptions from Thailand’s floods, Honda said Tuesday that its net earnings in the October-December quarter tumbled 41 percent to 47.6 billion yen ($625 million) and projected a sharply lower full-year profit.

The Japanese automobile and motorcycle maker forecast it would earn 215 billion yen for the fiscal year through March, down nearly 60 percent from the 534 billion yen it earned the previous fiscal year.

Honda had scrapped its earnings forecast in October, when it reported its previous quarterly results, because the flooding in Thailand _ a key Asian production hub for Honda and many Japanese companies _ made the outlook too uncertain.

Honda stopped making cars at its automobile assembly plant in Ayutthaya, north of Bangkok, in October after it was damaged in the worst floods to hit Thailand in 50 years. The company said in a statement that it was making progress on draining the plant of flood water and cleaning up equipment, and that production was expected to resume by the end of March.

The flooding also disrupted the output at many Honda suppliers in Thailand, forcing it to reduce production as far away as the U.S. and Canada. Honda said production in neighboring Asian countries interrupted by the problems in Thailand was expected to return to normal by April.

All told, the problems related to flooding in Thailand have cost the company 260,000 vehicles in lost production worldwide, according to Tomohiro Okada, a company spokesman.

Quarterly sales slid 8 percent during the fiscal third quarter to 1.942 trillion yen.

The strong yen, which erodes Japanese exporters’ foreign earned income when repatriated, also ate into the company’s income. Declines due to unfavorable exchange rates accounted for 33.6 billion yen, or nearly half, of the 73.1 billion yen drop in net income before taxes reported the same quarter a year ago, Okada said.

A bright spot for the company was its motorcycle business, amid strong demand in emerging markets. Motorcycle sales rose 6.3 percent during the quarter to nearly 3.1 million units.

(This version CORRECTS Corrects impact from currencies in paragraph 8, adds lost production of vehicles from Thai flooding in paragraph 6, adds details about growth in motorcycle business)

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The U.S. economy is growing at 2-3 percent but still faces big challenges to repair damage wrought by the financial crisis, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Friday.

“I think if you look at the Fed’s forecast and the consensus of private forecasters, people are pretty clustered in that area but it is still dependent how the world unfolds. We’re still repairing the damage done by the financial crisis,” Geithner told the World Economic Forum.

“On top of that we face a more challenging world. We have a lot of challenges ahead in the United States.”

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