Actual finance blog

February 13, 2010

Calamar wraps last Wheatfield phase

Filed under: management — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 3:51 am

Forestview Senior Village, the last phase of Woodlands Residential Village, has been completed and residents are moving into the three-story building.

Forestview, developed by Wheatfield-based Calamar, features 92 independent-living senior apartments. Calamar has developed more than 300 units in the 26-acre Woodlands complex, located off of Forest Parkway in Wheatfield.

Since starting Woodlands Residential Village five years ago, Calamar has seen virtually all of its apartments leased. Some 27 units of the 92 apartments in Forestview have been leased, officials said.

Calamar invested more than $30 million to develop Woodlands Residential Village, including $8.9 million on Forestview. The project was aided by incentives from the Niagara County Industrial Development Agency.

Forestview units offer one- and two-bedroom models, with monthly rents ranging from $1,095 to $1,295 and amenities such as private patios, central air conditioning and kitchen appliances payday loans. The units are smoke-free and pet-friendly. Rents also include heat and a Time Warner package that includes cable, telephone and Internet services.

The complex was designed with a central game room, 15-seat theater/media room, billiards room and fitness center.

The entire Woodlands Residential Village helps anchor the Woodlands Corporate Center East, which features a number of offices.

Woodlands Corporate Center East is expected to see more than 1,500 jobs retained or created, with an annual payroll of more than $28 million.

Source

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February 9, 2010

SWBC offers Equity National’s home appraisal product to lenders

Filed under: legal — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 12:33 pm

SWBC’s LendingXpress subsidiary has teamed up with Equity National to offer home valuation and analytic products to lenders to process real estate loans.

LendingXpress focuses on helping financial institutions order all of the products necessary to close a real estate loan, including property valuations and lien position. Equity National is a East Providence, R.I.-based company that provides lenders with a full range of valuation services to process mortgages.

“There are a lot of appraisal management companies fighting for business today, and after exhaustive due diligence, we chose Equity National to be our strategic partner based on their focus on the customer, (Home Valuation Code of Conduct) orientation, and their management team, which is unmatched in the industry,” says Ted Robinson, senior vice president and general manager of LendingXpress.

San Antonio-based SWBC is a financial services company that provides insurance, mortgage and investment services to financial institutions, businesses and individuals nationwide.

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February 4, 2010

Fixed-income investors use TIPS to fight inflation

Filed under: management — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 11:06 pm

Watching interest rates may be about as exciting as a snail race this year.

As the economy eases out of its doldrums, some upward rate movement by the Federal Reserve can be expected. But it will likely be a very modest move some months down the road during a relatively flat year for rates, say most experts.

The fixed-income investor is therefore left to handicap a rather unexciting field of choices. Locking in long-term rates doesn’t make sense with prospects for higher future rates, while short-term rates are extremely low.

Investors are, however, increasingly deciding to put money in a safe investment backed by the full faith and trust of the U.S. government: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, known as TIPS, that provide protection against inflation.
The principal of TIPS increases with inflation and decreases with deflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index. When a TIPS matures, you are paid the adjusted or original principal, whichever is greater. TIPS are issued in terms of five, 10 and 30 years with a minimum purchase of $100. They pay interest twice a year at a fixed rate and can be held until maturity or sold before maturity.

"One of the trends we’re definitely seeing is investors shifting some of their portfolios into the TIPS market," said Michael Pond, interest rate strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. "TIPS yields are low, but they add some safety to a portfolio by adding an inflation hedge at a very cheap price."

Investors should look at TIPS as a structural shift in their portfolio for diversification, Pond believes. While no one will make a lot of money in TIPS the next three months, that’s not their role right now, he said.

"TIPS are attractive for the five- to 10-year horizon in which you’re concerned about conserving your buying power," added Greg McBride, financial analyst with Bankrate.com. "They’re free from default risk, and the interest rate risk is minimized by the fact there’s an inflation adjustment."

Demand was strong at the government’s recent sale of 10-year TIPS despite their low 1.430 percent yield. That auction was more than 2½ times subscribed, with large institutional investors taking more than 40 percent of the new notes.

Not everyone’s completely sold on TIPS right now.

"TIPS are wonderful, wonderful, but I’m not buying them now because their yields are so low," said Evelyn Zohlen, certified financial planner and president of Inspired Financial, Huntington Beach, Calif. "Instead, I’m buying two-year bonds as a placeholder as I wait for interest rates to come back up, and then I will use the money to buy TIPS."

TIPS can be purchased directly from the Treasury or through a broker. They’re also available in a number of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that invest in a portfolio of different durations.

Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund, holding TIPS with an average maturity of nine years, had a 12 percent total return for the last 12 months and a three-year annualized return of 7 percent. Total return represents yield plus value of underlying securities.

That "no-load" (no sales charge) fund’s goal is to provide inexpensive entry into the inflation-protected bond market. Its initial purchase requirement is $3,000 and it has an extremely low 0.20 percent annual expense ratio.

Meanwhile, the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund ETF, which is traded like a stock and therefore requires broker commissions when bought or sold, also had a 12 percent rise in net asset value the past 12 months and a 7 percent three-year annualized gain. It, too, has a low annual expense ratio of 0.20 percent.

With a fund, you needn’t keep track of maturities of individual TIPS and can automatically buy more shares with their earnings. You have annual taxable income with either funds or direct ownership, but if you own individual TIPS, you face a tax bill on appreciation from the inflation adjustment, a noncash "phantom" event.

Most advisers consider TIPS for only a portion of a personal portfolio, primarily to hedge against inflation. TIPS also make most sense in tax-sheltered accounts.

Other current choices in fixed-income investments mostly represent biding your time for the future.

"If you lock in a five-year certificate of deposit at 3.5 percent, it won’t take much of a rebound in interest rates or inflation to be losing," cautioned McBride, whose www.bankrate.com site lists free of charge the best bank savings account and money-market account rates. "You want to bide your time in short-term investments so that as interest rates rise, you can lock into a longer-term CD."

He warns against high-yield bonds because adding risk to find yield isn’t the right move now.

"We do think there will be better buying opportunities in bonds later this year, particularly for bonds longer out on the curve," advised Pond. "Interest rates are historically low, but we do expect them to head higher in 2010."

Zohlen, who recommends only AAA or AA rated bonds for her clients, is convinced that this is no time to be taking on risks. To her way of thinking, avoiding long bonds of eight or nine years in duration altogether will be a smart decision this year.

Source

January 29, 2010

Efficiency, optimism on display at car show

Filed under: online — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 8:51 am

ST. LOUIS — People attending the first day of the St. Louis Auto Show filed past a shimmering lime-green Ford Fiesta — a fuel-sipping car that will roam 40 miles for every gallon of gas.

Ford was among a handful of automakers inside America’s Center to give prominent display to their eco-friendly, fuel-efficient cars at the start of the four-day event Thursday. Ford launched its strategy three years ago — before $4-a-gallon gas — and it’s still a top priority, said Cory Miller, a Ford zone manager in Kansas City.

"The Nineties was a decade where people didn’t necessarily care so much about fuel consumption; they cared more about style of the vehicle they wanted," Miller said. "Since the spike in the gas prices — even though the prices have stayed relatively moderate — people are once-bitten, twice shy.

"People remember having to dip into their pockets quite deeply to fill up."

While gasoline prices have returned to Earth, many car owners are still jittery about future price swings, Miller said. But they also want cars that are fun to drive, safe and of good quality. The Fiesta — a top seller in Europe — will be available in U.S. showrooms this spring.

Despite a dismal two-year stretch that resulted in the

government bailout of General Motors and Chrysler, industry officials said Thursday that there is guarded optimism that the worst may be over for the beleaguered auto industry.

"Really, I think we’ve turned the page," said Brian Sullivan, executive producer of the St. Louis Auto Show.

Still, not all manufacturers have been able to shake bad news entering the show.

Toyota was forced to suspend U.S. sales of top sellers because of problems with the gas pedals. Toyota representatives staffing the St. Louis display declined to talk about the halt to sales or a related recall, referring questions to company officials in California.

A federal judge on Thursday rejected the United Auto Workers’ request for a temporary restraining order that would have allowed the union to pass out leaflets in the lobby of the America’s Center. The UAW sought to draw attention to Toyota’s recent product problems and Toyota’s decision to close a plant in California.

Honda touted its entry-level Fit and its hybrid Insight alongside its Accord Crosstour, CR-V and Element, although Joe Duco of Meyer Honda in O’Fallon, Ill., said fuel efficiency isn’t the only thing driving today’s car buyer.

"There are still a lot of people inquiring about fuel efficiency," Duco said. "I think right now they’re kind of looking for that in-between vehicle."

Jeff Blair of Festus crawled behind the wheel of the Insight but concluded it would be too small for his family of four. While he’s not in the market for a new car right now, Blair said fuel efficiency is important when deciding to buy a car.

Blair is a copy machine technician in St. Louis who spends a lot of time on the road. His wife drives 45 miles each way to work at Barnes-Jewish Hospital.

"Gas mileage is definitely a big thing when you buy a car," said Blair, who owns a Honda Civic.

Not far away, Volkswagen’s display boasted that its TDI clean-diesel vehicles would make owners the toast of "tree-huggers and road-huggers alike."

While the blending of green technology and vehicle performance has been a theme at auto shows nationwide, so has one of relief among automakers who believe the worst is over, said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting for J.D. Power and Associates.

To that end, Schuster said, there is a correlation between attendance at auto shows and the public appetite to buy cars.

"Fuel economy … raises itself in importance more when fuel prices are high," said General Motors spokesman Craig Eppling. "They’re moderate now. We would have thought maybe three or four years ago $2.50 or so was high. Now, we’re generally accustomed to it."

Eppling said General Motors tracks why people buy cars. Style now rates high — along with safety and price. GM expects vehicle sales to track with the U.S. economy, Eppling added, so 2010 should be a good market but not necessarily a great one.

"This past year, the motivation has been value," Eppling said. "With the economy and the mind-set of ‘Do I have a job?’ and so forth, people are looking for a value."

Source

January 21, 2010

Taco Bell founder Glen Bell Jr. dies at 86

Filed under: online — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 7:45 am

Glen W. Bell Jr., founder of the Taco Bell restaurant chain, died Saturday at his home in Rancho Santa Fe, Calif. He was 86.

Bell was born Sept. 3, 1923 in Lynwood, Calif.

He founded the Taco Bell chain in 1962 in Downey, Calif., and sold the first franchise in 1964. He sold his entire 868-franchise company in 1978 to PepsiCo., which spun the company off in 1997 as a part of Louisville-based Tricon Global Restaurants Inc. Tricon became Yum Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) in 2002.

Yum Brands also owns Pizza Hut, Long John Silver’s A&W Restaurants, and KFC.

Today, Irvine, Calif.-based Taco Bell has more than 5,600 U.S. restaurants that serve about 36.8 million customers each week.

"The entire Taco Bell family of franchisees and employees are deeply saddened by the loss of the founder of Taco Bell. Glen Bell was a visionary and innovator in the restaurant industry, as well as a dedicated family man," Greg Creed, president and chief concept officer of Taco Bell, said in a news release. "His innovative business acumen started out of humble beginnings and created one of the nation's largest restaurant chains in Taco Bell. Mr. Bell introduced an entire nation to the taco and Mexican cuisine."

Click here to read the full release.

Source

January 14, 2010

Cincinnati-area groups win microenterprise grants

Filed under: economics, marketing — Tags: , — Professor Besto @ 3:15 am

The Greater Cincinnati Microenterprise Initiative (GCMI) and Adams/Brown Counties Economic Opportunities Inc., were among 11 organizations and municipalities to share more than $591,000 in microenterprise grants from the Ohio Department of Development.

The grants, funded through the Ohio Housing Trust Fund and Community Block Development Grant Program, help develop local microenterprise businesses.

GCMI will receive $58,300 to give training and technical support to 85 low- and moderate-income micro-entrepreneurs, according to a news release.

The Adams/Brown organization also will be awarded $58,300 for 40 low- and moderate-income entrepreneurs, and for loans to four microenterprise businesses.

“Microenterprise businesses throughout the nation and our state are a major source of employment,” said Lisa Patt-McDaniel, director of the Ohio Department of Development, in the release.

Other areas receiving grants include: Athens, Pike, Franklin, Perry, Columbiana, Morgan, Van Wert and Vinton counties, and the city of Zanesville.

Source

January 9, 2010

Holt Renfrew pulls presidential switch

Filed under: economics — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 10:15 am

Canada’s premier luxury retailer, Holt Renfrew, has replaced Caryn Lerner as its president following a year in which many luxury retailers struggled.

Lerner, an American with a strong fashion background, will be succeeded by Mark Derbyshire, a 40-year-old former Canadian Tire marketing executive who was most recently in charge of human resources at Holt Renfrew’s parent company.

The changes are effective immediately, said the owner of the 11-store chain.

"Mark has displayed tremendous leadership and business acumen over the six years he has been with our organization," said W. Galen Weston, chairman of Holt Renfrew. "We are confident that he will continue to evolve and grow Holt Renfrew as an international brand and a continued fashion authority in Canada."

Lerner will stay on as an independent consultant to Holt Renfrew’s parent firm, Wittington Fashion Retail Group, the company said.

Lerner’s departure, after five years as president and chief executive officer, took some retail industry observers by surprise and raised questions about the luxury department stores’ performance. Long considered a leader in fashion retailing, featuring names like Prada, Gucci, and Jil Sander, Holt Renfrew faced increased competition as designers opened their own shops on Bloor, and the Bay expanded its designer floor at its flagship store in downtown Toronto.

"This sounds like a fairly sudden change of direction," said Wendy Evans, president of the retail consulting firm Evans & Company.

Noted Maureen Atkinson, a partner in the retail-consulting firm J.C. Williams Group: "I don’t think their results have been spectacular. I think that’s been an issue and a challenge. I don’t think it’s her. I think it is what it is. The economy. I think there’s a whole bunch of reasons why they’re not really doing well payday loans guaranteed no fax."

However, the Weston family appeared to be "firmly behind her," Atkinson said of Lerner.

Luxury retailers across Canada were hit hard at the start of the recession but had seen their performance improve toward year-end, Evans noted. "The high end has certainly taken a beating over the last year or so. But in the last couple of months luxury retailing has seen some pretty good signs of life."

Holt Renfrew’s results are not publicly available.

"2009 was a tough year for everybody. But it was a pretty good year for Holt Renfrew," spokesperson John Crean said in an interview later. "Going into 2010, the board (of directors of Holt Renfrew) is very optimistic about the prospect for Holts going forward."

Describing Derbyshire as "a relationship guy," Crean said his first priority would be meeting with customers, suppliers and employees. "You’ll see him in short order reach out to them on what their perspective is on what Holts is doing well and what it can do better."

Derbyshire’s most recent title, chief talent officer for Wittington Fashion, involved recruiting senior talent across all of the holding group’s properties, Crean said.

The private company, owned by the wealthy Weston family, also owns two other luxury retailers, Selfridges in London and Brown Thomas in Dublin.

Derbyshire was previously head of human resources at Holt Renfrew, which operates nine stores in Canada. He grew up in a retail family. Both his father and grandfather owned Canadian Tire dealerships.

Source

December 31, 2009

Brazil Borrowing Costs at Lowest Since December 2007

Filed under: technology — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 5:36 pm

Brazil’s average interest rate for consumers and companies fell to the lowest since December 2007 last month as banks stepped up lending amid declining defaults.

The average interest rate on bank loans dropped to 34.9 percent from 35.6 percent in October, the central bank said today in a report issued in Brasilia. It’s the lowest since an average 33.8 percent in December 2007. Rates on consumer loans touched the lowest on record, Altamir Lopes, the head of the central bank’s economic department, told reporters in Brasilia.

“The perception of lower risk is the main reason for that result, but the reduction of reserve requirements and increasing competition among banks are also influencing it,” said Roberto Padovani, senior strategist at WestLB do Brasil in Sao Paulo. “Average interest rates should continue to fall for the next six months before stabilizing.”

Brazil emerged from its first recession since 2003 in the second quarter after central bank policy makers made five straight cuts in the benchmark interest rate to a record low of 8.75 percent. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has publicly pressed state and private banks to expand credit to consumers and companies to sustain demand, keep investment in public works and help meet the government’s target of building 1 million homes.

Personal Defaults

The personal default rate in Brazil fell to 8.1 percent in November, from 8.2 percent in the previous month, the bank said, the lowest level since last year.

Total outstanding loans expanded 1.5 percent in November to 1.39 trillion reais ($800 billion) from a revised 1.37 trillion reais the previous month, the central bank said. That figure expanded 1.5 percent in the December 1-15 period, Lopes said.

Total outstanding credit will reach 48 percent of gross domestic product by the end of next year, after touching 45.3 percent this month, the central bank’s director of economic policy, Mario Mesquita, said Dec. 22.

After pumping 100 billion reais into the state development bank, the Brazilian government pledged another injection of 80 billion reais into the bank, known as BNDES, to ease credit conditions for infrastructure projects and other investment.

The economy will expand as much as 5.8 percent next year, fueling inflation above the government’s target of 4.5 percent, the central bank said in a report earlier this month.

Brazil’s non-state banks will be able to issue domestic debt as a way to raise funds, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said Dec. 9. The new paper, which needs to be approved by the central bank’s monetary council, will reduce costs and allow private lenders to compete for long term loans, Mantega said.

Source

December 14, 2009

The hidden cost of ‘free’ rewards

Filed under: marketing — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 1:51 pm

On the back of a recent issue of Bon Appétit magazine, a group of attractive, smiling young people is gathered around a white-cloth covered table, sipping wine and laughing.

The tag line is "Guess who’s paying for dinner? Your points."

It’s an ad for a credit card and the implication is clear: Use your card often enough and you’ll get something in return.

Canadians are crazy for rewards programs. Collectively, there are 114 million active members of rewards programs in Canada, according to Colloquy, the market research arm of LoyaltyOne, the group that owns the Air Miles program.

That’s more than four rewards programs for every man, woman and child in the country.

"When you can take a whole family on a trip and not pay anything, I think that’s fantastic. That’s worth thousands of dollars. Why wouldn’t you do it?" says Lynda Fishman, a 52-year-old children’s camp director in North York.

Fishman has at least three credit cards with rewards programs on them, and an Air Miles card she can use on its own to collect points. None comes with annual fees and they’ve produced enough points to send her family of five to Florida for a week.

She also earns a $150 bottle of Chanel perfume every few months with her Shoppers Drug Mart loyalty card. "I shop there whenever they have the 20 times bonus points on everything in the store."

In the minds of most consumers, these rewards are "free." But, of course, they’re not.

They come out of the pockets of retailers like Jim Stonley and Zafar Khokhar, co-owners of the Esso station at Front St. E. and Sherbourne St. in Toronto.

The pair say they pay nearly $11,000 a month on average in credit card fees and see little benefit, even from Esso-brand loyalty cards.

Indeed, they say they pay twice when a customer swipes their Esso points card – once to process the transaction and again when the customer redeems them because the points do not cover the full cost of the product or service.

Stonley and Khokhar say they feel they have to accept any credit card the consumer presents or risk losing their business to competitors. But the costs are starting to add up.

Profit margins on gas average 5 cents a litre. Credit card processing fees are on average 2 per cent. So, when the price of gas goes up, the credit card processing fee also increases and eats into the margins.

"It’s quite a lot of money for a small business person," Stonley said.

Many loyalty programs are part of a retailer’s marketing program. Retailers pay to join Air Miles because it helps drive cardholders to their stores. Shoppers Drug Mart uses its Optimum card to attract customers and push selected merchandise by doubling or tripling the points on those items.

These kinds of loyalty programs make up about 80 per cent of the rewards program market in Canada.

Consumers don’t seem to mind that the costs may be hidden in the prices of things they buy. Indeed, the Consumers Association of Canada opposes anything that would reduce the value of rewards programs, such as caps on credit card interest rates and fees.

Nearly half of Canadians use a credit card simply because it offers rewards, citing first points, then flights and finally cash as their preferred rewards, according to Chicago-based research firm Mintel International Inc.

Retailers say there is a fundamental problem in the way credit card programs are funded. They foot the entire bill but they do not derive all the benefits and say they have no ability to negotiate the rates.

That’s because merchant "swipe" fees are based largely on something called the "interchange rate."

"I can tell you, without a doubt, that all of the credit cards that come with rewards programs are fully paid for by the merchants," says Diane Brisebois, president of the Retail Council of Canada. The council estimates such fees now cost merchants $4.5 billion a year, or roughly 2 per cent of the value of every purchase Faxless payday loans. That amounts to nearly $400 per household, assuming these costs are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

The Bank of Canada concluded credit cards have become the most expensive form of payment for merchants. The average debit card transaction costs 12 cents, but a credit card transaction costs 2 to 4 per cent of the value of the sale, according to the central bank.

Credit card companies say interchange keeps the system running smoothly. In a two-way network, where both sides have to agree to participate, it ensures banks have an incentive to issue cards to consumers, and merchants have an incentive to accept them, they say.

The fee is collected by the merchant’s bank and paid to the cardholder’s bank to compensate the card issuer for the cost of bringing cardholders into the system, the credit card companies say.

"Interchange is determined by MasterCard and makes up part of the fee paid by the merchant," Kevin Stanton, president of MasterCard Canada, told a Senate committee hearing earlier this year.

Merchants and small business owners say the system encourages a weird form of reverse competition in which credit card companies compete for the banks’ business by raising the interchange rate at the merchants’ expense.

This wasn’t a problem as long as merchants felt the rates were reasonable and negotiable, Brisebois says. That’s no longer the case.

Ever since most of Canada’s banks outsourced their merchant-acquiring business to third parties, it’s been a lot tougher for merchants to strike deals on credit card processing fees.

"The merchant used to deal directly with the branch manager of their bank. The merchant could negotiate with the manager, who wanted to keep the merchant’s banking business," Brisebois explains.

The situation took a turn for the worse after the credit card companies fiddled with their interchange rate structure and introduced a new class of "premium" cards. After years of relatively steady, predictable fees, both Visa and MasterCard expanded the number and kind of rates retailers pay from two or three rates to between 19 and 21.

The new premium cards, such as Visa’s Infinite card, come with more perks for consumers but cost merchants more to accept.

Retailers say these cards now represent 25 per cent of the value of all transactions and have a huge and unpredictable impact on the fees they face at the end of the month.

The bankers’ association says premium cards represent just 9 per cent of their credit card accounts and benefit the merchant by bringing in higher net worth customers.

Industry experts, such as Andrew Davidson of Mintel International Inc., say premium cards were created to offset banks’ rising loan losses during the economic downturn.

Add in other interchange changes and these new premium cards helped boost processing fees more than 10 per cent for Visa and nearly 20 per cent for MasterCard in the 12-month period ending last February, retailers say.

The credit card companies dispute the retailers’ figures, saying they have raised rates for some types of transactions and lowered them for others so the overall impact is neutral. The retail council says the new rates are designed to boost credit card use in grocery stores, gas stations and coffee shops where consumers prefer to use cash or debit.

Initially, credit cards were cheaper than cash or cheques and had the added benefit of reducing the risk of theft, says Andrew Ching, a marketing professor at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management. Now, with the market saturated, banks began to use their reward programs to compete for market share, and to penetrate under-represented markets, such as grocery and gas.

Fishman, the points-collecting camp director, shrugs off retailer complaints. She accepts credit card payments from clients. "It’s just another cost of doing business."

Source

December 7, 2009

Yen's Biggest Decline in Decade No Anomaly With Options Fading

Filed under: news — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 11:00 pm

Options traders are growing less bullish on the yen after efforts by Japanese officials to boost the world’s second-biggest economy and a U.S. jobs report led to the currency’s biggest weekly decline in a decade.

Japan’s currency plunged 2.5 percent against the dollar and 1.3 percent versus the euro on Dec. 4 after America’s Labor Department said employers cut the fewest jobs since the recession began. The yen sank 4.5 percent versus the greenback for the week, the most since February 1999 and retreating from a 14-year high. Traders sold yen and bought dollars on speculation interest rates in the U.S. will increase before June.

“The improving U.S. jobs market suggests the Federal Reserve won’t stand pat on interest rates longer than the Bank of Japan,” said Kazutoshi Yasuda, general manager of the markets department in Tokyo at FX Prime Corp., a unit of Itochu Corp. Increased U.S. borrowing costs would lead traders to favor using yen to finance higher-yielding investments, leading to more losses for the Japanese currency, he said.

Options showed declining bets that the yen will rise. The odds for a gain to 84.5 yen per dollar by the end of March from 90.56 last week fell to 38 percent from 80 percent on Nov. 30, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Chances of a decline to 92 versus the dollar by Dec. 31 reached 63 percent. Options grant buyers the right to purchase or sell an asset at a predetermined price.

Weekly Tumble

The yen tumbled 3.6 percent versus the euro to 134.54 last week, the sharpest slide since the week ended April 3. The yen’s biggest drop during the week came after the U.S. Labor Department said payrolls dropped by 11,000 last month, the smallest decrease since the recession began in December 2007.

“What the job numbers do is firm up expectations that the Fed interest-rate hike is coming,” said Camilla Sutton, a strategist in Toronto at Bank of Nova Scotia, the nation’s third-largest lender. “That should be a strong-dollar story.”

Federal-funds futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 43.3 percent probability that the U.S. central bank will lift its target rate for overnight bank borrowing to 0.5 percent by June from a range of zero to 0.25 percent now, up from 12.6 percent a month ago.

UBS AG expects the Fed to set its key rate at the top end of its 0.25 percent range in April and follow with a quarter- point increase in June. The jobs report and last week’s gains “suggest the greenback is finally turning,” Mansoor Mohi-uddin, the Zurich-based bank’s global head of currency strategy, wrote in a note to clients.

Best Performer

The yen was the best performer against the dollar among the 16 most-traded currencies the past four years, Bloomberg data show. It surged to 84.83 on Nov. 27, the strongest since July 1995, from 124.13 in June 2007. The yen tends to advance amid financial turmoil because Japan’s trade surplus reduces reliance on foreign capital.

Record low U.S. interest rates have kept the dollar under pressure at the expense of the yen, making the greenback the favorite for so-called carry trades, where investors raise funds in countries with low borrowing costs and use the proceeds to invest in countries with higher returns.

Benchmark rates of as low as zero in the U.S. and 0.1 percent in Japan compare with 3.75 in Australia and 2.5 percent in New Zealand.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three- month loans in the U.S. currency has been below the equivalent yen rate since Aug. 24. In the decade before then, the dollar rate averaged 2.94 percentage points more than the yen rate.

‘Extreme’ Positioning

Contracts betting the yen would climb against the dollar rose to 51,710 on Nov. 27, the most since May 2008, according to data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission in Washington based on contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. As recently as June, there more contracts betting on a decline in the yen than a gain.

Such “extreme” positioning may suggest that the decline in the yen represents traders unwinding “long” positions rather than an outright bet on the currency’s depreciation, Marc Chandler, the global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, said in a note to clients on Dec. 4.

The median estimate of more than 30 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg is for the yen to end March at 92 to the dollar and 136 to the euro.

‘Urgent Steps’

Fujio Mitarai, head of Japan’s largest business lobby, called on the government to take “urgent steps” on Nov. 27 to curb gains in the yen, which make Japanese exports less competitive and threaten corporate profits. The same day, Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said in Tokyo the nation will “do what is necessary” and he may contact U.S. and European officials to act.

Exports make up about 12 percent of Japan’s economy, compared with 6 percent in the U.S. The nation’s gross domestic product is forecast to shrink 5.7 percent this year, according to the median estimate of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That compares with a contraction of 2.4 percent in the U.S.

The Bank of Japan announced an emergency 10 trillion yen ($113 billion) credit program on Dec. 1 to combat falling prices and the stronger yen. The spread between dollar- and yen-based Libor narrowed to 2.72 basis points on Dec. 4 from as much as 7.25 basis points on Sept. 8.

Stimulus Plan

“The BOJ’s action worked,” said Masato Mori, senior manager of the business and marketing department at NTT SmartTrade Inc. a unit of Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. “Stopping the yen’s advance will require additional spending from the government.”

A stimulus plan worth as much as 4 trillion yen ($45.4 billion) may be agreed upon today, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano said last week. The government planned to announce the measures on Dec. 4 before disagreements between Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s ruling Democratic Party of Japan and coalition partners, who want a larger package, caused a delay.

Bonds to be issued in the fiscal year starting April 1 may reach 146.2 trillion yen compared with a revised 132.3 trillion yen this year, according to Citigroup Global Markets Japan Inc.

“There is probably enough in the policy action in Japan by the government and the BOJ to argue for further upside on cross- yen currencies near term,” said Greg Gibbs, a foreign-exchange strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney.

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