Actual finance blog

March 2, 2010

Schlafly ramps up beer production

Filed under: economics — Tags: , — Professor Besto @ 1:54 am

Having reached capacity at their two St. Louis brewing facilities, the makers of Schlafly beer are finalizing arrangements to expand production through deals with two out-of-state breweries.

St. Louis Brewery Inc. has tentative agreements with brewing sites in Stevens Point, Wis., and Latrobe, Pa., company co-founder Dan Kopman told the Post-Dispatch. The brewer will begin making some lager-style beers in Wisconsin as early as this summer in an effort to keep up with booming craft-beer sales.

The arrangement allows Schlafly to act as a tenant, renting brewery equipment and space from the out-of-state beermakers. The move is more cost- and time-efficient than building a third local brewing site, Kopman said.

"Even if we acquired land today, it would be five years before we were brewing on a new site," he said. "We needed something a little sooner than that."

The brewery has reached its production ceiling in St. Louis.

On Friday, cranes lowered four stainless-steel, 200-barrel fermenting tanks into the company’s Bottleworks brewery in Maplewood. The new tanks — where yeast ferments and beer develops alcohol and carbonation — cap a $500,000 project that will help increase Schlafly’s annual local production by nearly 30 percent to 45,000 barrels of beer.

"This is the end of how much we can squeeze into Bottleworks," Kopman said. "Nothing else will fit in the building."

St. Louis Brewery will send raw ingredients as well as personnel and lab equipment to the Wisconsin brewery to keep standards in line with its St. Louis operations. The Pennsylvania facility will be used only if additional production is needed, Kopman said. Both out-of-state locations specialize in lager brewing and have canning lines should the brewery decide to put its beers in cans — a move several craft brewers have recently made.

Many start-up and regional breweries have turned to arrangements with outside producers as the credit market tightened and demand for craft beer climbed, said Paul Gatza, director of the Colorado-based Brewers Association payday loans with no fax.

It’s a good way to quickly fill expansion needs, Gatza said, but it "can create more work and travel for brewing staff … to ensure brand consistency over multiple brewing systems."

St. Louis Brewery currently sells about 90 percent of its Schlafly brands in the St. Louis metro area, though the company has expanded distribution into parts of Kentucky, Indiana and Tennessee. Any Schlafly beer brewed outside of St. Louis will say so on its packaging.

"In the long term, we’re committed to making all the beer that we sell in St. Louis in St. Louis," Kopman said. "We just need some breathing room right now."

St. Louis Brewery will be sharing the Wisconsin space with, among others, O’Fallon Brewery of O’Fallon, Mo., which last year outsourced production of its year-round beers to Stevens Point.

O’Fallon founders Tony and Fran Caradonna, who saw sales of their beers increase 36 percent in 2009, made the decision to contract-brew after reaching capacity at O’Fallon’s 3,000-barrel-a-year brewery northwest of downtown St. Louis.

Kopman also reported surging retail sales so far this year — up about 18 percent compared with January-February 2009. Schlafly set a company record last year by selling about 30,000 barrels of beer, which translates to about 10 million 12-ounce bottles.

Gatza expects the demand for craft beers to continue climbing, which means even more options for consumers. "There has never been a better time for beer drinkers in America."

Source

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February 27, 2010

Senate approves $15 billion jobs bill

Filed under: technology — Tags: , — Professor Besto @ 9:03 am

The Senate on Wednesday approved a $15 billion job-creation bill that would give businesses tax breaks for hiring the unemployed and states more money for infrastructure projects.

The four-prong bill would:

  • Exempt employers from Social Security payroll taxes on new hires who were unemployed;
  • Fund highway and transit programs through 2010;
  • Extend a tax break for business that spend money on capital investments, such as equipment purchases;
  • Expand the use of the Build America Bonds program, which helps states and municipalities fund capital construction projects.

The legislation, approved by a 70-28 vote, is a scaled-down version of an $85 billion bipartisan draft bill that was crafted by Sens. Max Baucus, D-Mont., and Charles Grassley, R-Iowa.

Some 13 Republicans, including newly elected Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., voted for the measure Wednesday.

"Today’s progress is a small step forward but an important one," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., who surprised many lawmakers last week when he announced the slimmed-down measure. "This morning’s vote is a victory for hard-working Americans, especially those trying to find work. This will help our economy grow."

It now moves to the House, which may take it up as soon as Friday, said a Democratic aide at the House, which passed a more comprehensive $154 billion bill in December.

However, the bill does not extend the deadline to apply for unemployment benefits or the Cobra health insurance subsidy. Some 1.2 million people will run out of benefits after Feb. 28 if the deadline is not extended cash advance. Lawmakers are looking to pass a separate, shorter extension by the end of the week in order to give them time to enact a longer fix.

Also, unlike the House’s bill, the Senate’s jobs measure does not provide additional assistance for states. Many governors want the Obama administration to send more federal dollars so they can cope with yawning budget gaps.

The administration said on Monday that it strongly supports the $15 billion jobs measure but indicated it is only one step in the job-creation effort. The president wants lawmakers to take up a bill that would increase small businesses’ access to credit.

Reid said the Senate will vote on extending tax provisions and small business job measures in the near future. The majority leader also said lawmakers will consider providing additional Medicaid money for states, which governors have been requesting.

"We have other things in mind," Reid said. "Remember, we don’t have a jobs bill, we have a jobs agenda."

Still, labor leaders and left-leaning think tanks say the Senate must do more to spur job creation.

"We need to create 11 million jobs to get back to the level of unemployment we had before the recession began," said Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute. "Yet the Senate jobs bill would create no more than a couple hundred thousand jobs."

CNN Radio Correspondent Lisa Desjardins contributed to this report. 

Source

February 22, 2010

The Place at Gallatin sold to Emeritus Senior Living

Filed under: marketing — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 2:48 am

Senior living community The Place at Gallatin has a new name and a new owner.

Seattle-based Emeritus Senior Living announced today that it has purchased The Place at Gallatin, which will now operate under the name Emeritus at Gallatin.

Publicly traded Emeritus currently operates 316 residential and assisted living communities in 36 states serving about 32,700 residents.

In a news release, Emeritus President Granger Cobb said the company plans to bring “additional improvements” to its newest facility.

Mary Ellen Mayfield, executive director for Emeritus at Gallatin, said the purchase allows the community to maintain its independence while benefiting from the support of a national senior living company.

“It will be great for this community to be a part of the Emeritus family, such a forward-thinking company that is committed to the highest standards of quality care for seniors,” Mayfield said.

Emeritus is on of the country’s largest operators of freestanding assisted living communities providing Alzheimer’s and related dementia care services to seniors.

Source

February 15, 2010

No March Madness NCAA game from EA this year

Filed under: money — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 3:36 pm

Electronic Arts Inc. won't have a new March Madness NCAA basketball game for the first time since 2003, another sign of the company's recent struggles.

The game was missing from the product release list that Redwood City-based EA (NASDAQ:ERTS) announced last week but it wasn't until Saturday that it acknowledged that it was dropping March Madness.

"We do not have an NCAA Basketball game in development at this time, and we're currently reviewing the future of our NCAA Basketball business," an EA Sports rep told the GameSpot Web site. "This was a difficult decision, but we remain a committed partner to the NCAA and its member institutions."

In its most recent quarter, EA posted a third quarter loss of $82 million, or 25 cents a share, narrowed from a loss in the same period last year of $641 million, or $2 a share business cards design.

Its revenue was $1.24 billion, down from $1.65 billion in the year-ago quarter.

The company said it expects fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of between 2 cents and 6 cents a share, far below analyst projections of 13 cents a share.

It said fourth-quarter net revenue is expected to be $925 million and $1 billion. Adjusted revenue is expected to be between $800 million and $850 million, below Wall Street's projection of $851 million.

Source

February 13, 2010

Calamar wraps last Wheatfield phase

Filed under: management — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 3:51 am

Forestview Senior Village, the last phase of Woodlands Residential Village, has been completed and residents are moving into the three-story building.

Forestview, developed by Wheatfield-based Calamar, features 92 independent-living senior apartments. Calamar has developed more than 300 units in the 26-acre Woodlands complex, located off of Forest Parkway in Wheatfield.

Since starting Woodlands Residential Village five years ago, Calamar has seen virtually all of its apartments leased. Some 27 units of the 92 apartments in Forestview have been leased, officials said.

Calamar invested more than $30 million to develop Woodlands Residential Village, including $8.9 million on Forestview. The project was aided by incentives from the Niagara County Industrial Development Agency.

Forestview units offer one- and two-bedroom models, with monthly rents ranging from $1,095 to $1,295 and amenities such as private patios, central air conditioning and kitchen appliances payday loans. The units are smoke-free and pet-friendly. Rents also include heat and a Time Warner package that includes cable, telephone and Internet services.

The complex was designed with a central game room, 15-seat theater/media room, billiards room and fitness center.

The entire Woodlands Residential Village helps anchor the Woodlands Corporate Center East, which features a number of offices.

Woodlands Corporate Center East is expected to see more than 1,500 jobs retained or created, with an annual payroll of more than $28 million.

Source

February 6, 2010

Obama’s ‘Volcker Rule’ May Not Survive Congressional Skepticism

Filed under: online — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 5:14 am

President Barack Obama’s “Volcker Rule” to ban proprietary trading at U.S. banks may not survive in Congress, hampered by criticism that the administration waited too long and offered too few details.

The proposal’s timing is viewed by some as “transparently political and not substantive,” Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said on Feb. 2. It was “airdropped” into the Senate debate on legislation to overhaul U.S. financial rules, said Senator Richard Shelby, the panel’s top Republican.

“It’s tough to take on another issue at this point,” Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, said at a hearing in Washington yesterday that included executives from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. “It was never my intention, or I believe the intention of this committee, to solve every issue surrounding the financial-services sector.”

Members of the Senate panel have been working for weeks to translate into legislation the plan Obama released in June to overhaul U.S. financial rules. The focus is on the Senate after the House passed its version of the legislation in December.

Obama named the Jan. 21 proposal after its chief proponent, ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, now a White House adviser. Based on an idea circulated in a January 2009 report by the Volcker-led Group of Thirty, composed of former central bankers and finance ministers, it would force banks to stop the trading they do on their own accounts and give up their stakes in hedge funds and private-equity funds.

Citigroup Trader Quits

Some traders have already taken note. Matthew Carpenter, head of a Citigroup Inc. unit that trades U.S. stocks using the bank’s money, quit to join hedge fund Moore Capital Management LP, people briefed on the matter said yesterday. Leaving with him is his deputy, Matthew Newton, amid concern the government may order banks to exit such businesses, the people said.

Dodd and Shelby told reporters yesterday they hadn’t ruled out incorporating the plan into the bill. Dodd, who on Feb. 2 said he “strongly” supported the proposal, said he’d consider language empowering regulators to carry out the recommendations without having lawmakers write the rules, and Shelby said he wanted to see whether regulators already have the power.

The announcement came two days after a Republican victory in the Massachusetts Senate race that cost Democrats their supermajority in the Senate — timing that stoked speculation it was motivated by politics.

Volcker said Feb. 2 that the timing was “sheer coincidence.” Obama decided to back the proposal weeks before the Massachusetts election, he said. Volcker wasn’t available for comment yesterday, according to his assistant, Anke Dening.

Client Business

The White House defines proprietary trades as those not done for the benefit of customers, a senior administration official said when the Volcker plan was announced. Regulators would have the power to ask banks whether certain trades are related to client business, the official said. If they’re not, the regulators could order firms to exit the positions.

“We’re working closely with the Congress to rein in risky practices on Wall Street,” Treasury Department spokesman Andrew Williams said in an e-mailed statement. “The House passed a strong bill in December and now we’re working with the Senate to get the job done.”

Senator Michael Crapo, an Idaho Republican, pressed Deputy Treasury Secretary Neal Wolin at the Feb. 2 hearing to release details of the plan “so that we can understand specifically what we are talking about or what the proposal is with regard to proprietary trading.”

Wolin responded by telling Crapo the administration is working with regulators to prepare a draft legislative proposal that it will send to Congress “soon.”

Drawing a Line

Drawing a line between bank and customer trading won’t be easy, said Hal Scott, a professor at Harvard Law School who specializes in international financial systems.

A narrow definition probably won’t reduce risk, Scott said, while a broad one could “seriously impair the basic function of modern banks as market-makers” in government and non-government securities and as packagers of consumer debt into bonds.

Goldman Sachs’s E. Gerald Corrigan, who like Volcker is a past president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said at yesterday’s hearing that banks should be allowed to own and sponsor hedge funds and private equity funds because any risks can be managed. Corrigan is chairman of the firm’s regulated bank subsidiary.

Barry Zubrow, JPMorgan’s chief risk officer, told the committee the activities the administration is proposing to restrict didn’t cause the financial crisis.

“Indeed, in many cases, those activities diversified financial institutions’ revenue streams and served as a source of stability,” Zubrow said in his prepared testimony. “Further, regulators currently have the authority to ensure that risks are adequately managed in the areas the administration proposes to restrict.”

Source

January 14, 2010

Cincinnati-area groups win microenterprise grants

Filed under: economics, marketing — Tags: , — Professor Besto @ 3:15 am

The Greater Cincinnati Microenterprise Initiative (GCMI) and Adams/Brown Counties Economic Opportunities Inc., were among 11 organizations and municipalities to share more than $591,000 in microenterprise grants from the Ohio Department of Development.

The grants, funded through the Ohio Housing Trust Fund and Community Block Development Grant Program, help develop local microenterprise businesses.

GCMI will receive $58,300 to give training and technical support to 85 low- and moderate-income micro-entrepreneurs, according to a news release.

The Adams/Brown organization also will be awarded $58,300 for 40 low- and moderate-income entrepreneurs, and for loans to four microenterprise businesses.

“Microenterprise businesses throughout the nation and our state are a major source of employment,” said Lisa Patt-McDaniel, director of the Ohio Department of Development, in the release.

Other areas receiving grants include: Athens, Pike, Franklin, Perry, Columbiana, Morgan, Van Wert and Vinton counties, and the city of Zanesville.

Source

January 9, 2010

Holt Renfrew pulls presidential switch

Filed under: economics — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 10:15 am

Canada’s premier luxury retailer, Holt Renfrew, has replaced Caryn Lerner as its president following a year in which many luxury retailers struggled.

Lerner, an American with a strong fashion background, will be succeeded by Mark Derbyshire, a 40-year-old former Canadian Tire marketing executive who was most recently in charge of human resources at Holt Renfrew’s parent company.

The changes are effective immediately, said the owner of the 11-store chain.

"Mark has displayed tremendous leadership and business acumen over the six years he has been with our organization," said W. Galen Weston, chairman of Holt Renfrew. "We are confident that he will continue to evolve and grow Holt Renfrew as an international brand and a continued fashion authority in Canada."

Lerner will stay on as an independent consultant to Holt Renfrew’s parent firm, Wittington Fashion Retail Group, the company said.

Lerner’s departure, after five years as president and chief executive officer, took some retail industry observers by surprise and raised questions about the luxury department stores’ performance. Long considered a leader in fashion retailing, featuring names like Prada, Gucci, and Jil Sander, Holt Renfrew faced increased competition as designers opened their own shops on Bloor, and the Bay expanded its designer floor at its flagship store in downtown Toronto.

"This sounds like a fairly sudden change of direction," said Wendy Evans, president of the retail consulting firm Evans & Company.

Noted Maureen Atkinson, a partner in the retail-consulting firm J.C. Williams Group: "I don’t think their results have been spectacular. I think that’s been an issue and a challenge. I don’t think it’s her. I think it is what it is. The economy. I think there’s a whole bunch of reasons why they’re not really doing well payday loans guaranteed no fax."

However, the Weston family appeared to be "firmly behind her," Atkinson said of Lerner.

Luxury retailers across Canada were hit hard at the start of the recession but had seen their performance improve toward year-end, Evans noted. "The high end has certainly taken a beating over the last year or so. But in the last couple of months luxury retailing has seen some pretty good signs of life."

Holt Renfrew’s results are not publicly available.

"2009 was a tough year for everybody. But it was a pretty good year for Holt Renfrew," spokesperson John Crean said in an interview later. "Going into 2010, the board (of directors of Holt Renfrew) is very optimistic about the prospect for Holts going forward."

Describing Derbyshire as "a relationship guy," Crean said his first priority would be meeting with customers, suppliers and employees. "You’ll see him in short order reach out to them on what their perspective is on what Holts is doing well and what it can do better."

Derbyshire’s most recent title, chief talent officer for Wittington Fashion, involved recruiting senior talent across all of the holding group’s properties, Crean said.

The private company, owned by the wealthy Weston family, also owns two other luxury retailers, Selfridges in London and Brown Thomas in Dublin.

Derbyshire was previously head of human resources at Holt Renfrew, which operates nine stores in Canada. He grew up in a retail family. Both his father and grandfather owned Canadian Tire dealerships.

Source

December 14, 2009

The hidden cost of ‘free’ rewards

Filed under: marketing — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 1:51 pm

On the back of a recent issue of Bon Appétit magazine, a group of attractive, smiling young people is gathered around a white-cloth covered table, sipping wine and laughing.

The tag line is "Guess who’s paying for dinner? Your points."

It’s an ad for a credit card and the implication is clear: Use your card often enough and you’ll get something in return.

Canadians are crazy for rewards programs. Collectively, there are 114 million active members of rewards programs in Canada, according to Colloquy, the market research arm of LoyaltyOne, the group that owns the Air Miles program.

That’s more than four rewards programs for every man, woman and child in the country.

"When you can take a whole family on a trip and not pay anything, I think that’s fantastic. That’s worth thousands of dollars. Why wouldn’t you do it?" says Lynda Fishman, a 52-year-old children’s camp director in North York.

Fishman has at least three credit cards with rewards programs on them, and an Air Miles card she can use on its own to collect points. None comes with annual fees and they’ve produced enough points to send her family of five to Florida for a week.

She also earns a $150 bottle of Chanel perfume every few months with her Shoppers Drug Mart loyalty card. "I shop there whenever they have the 20 times bonus points on everything in the store."

In the minds of most consumers, these rewards are "free." But, of course, they’re not.

They come out of the pockets of retailers like Jim Stonley and Zafar Khokhar, co-owners of the Esso station at Front St. E. and Sherbourne St. in Toronto.

The pair say they pay nearly $11,000 a month on average in credit card fees and see little benefit, even from Esso-brand loyalty cards.

Indeed, they say they pay twice when a customer swipes their Esso points card – once to process the transaction and again when the customer redeems them because the points do not cover the full cost of the product or service.

Stonley and Khokhar say they feel they have to accept any credit card the consumer presents or risk losing their business to competitors. But the costs are starting to add up.

Profit margins on gas average 5 cents a litre. Credit card processing fees are on average 2 per cent. So, when the price of gas goes up, the credit card processing fee also increases and eats into the margins.

"It’s quite a lot of money for a small business person," Stonley said.

Many loyalty programs are part of a retailer’s marketing program. Retailers pay to join Air Miles because it helps drive cardholders to their stores. Shoppers Drug Mart uses its Optimum card to attract customers and push selected merchandise by doubling or tripling the points on those items.

These kinds of loyalty programs make up about 80 per cent of the rewards program market in Canada.

Consumers don’t seem to mind that the costs may be hidden in the prices of things they buy. Indeed, the Consumers Association of Canada opposes anything that would reduce the value of rewards programs, such as caps on credit card interest rates and fees.

Nearly half of Canadians use a credit card simply because it offers rewards, citing first points, then flights and finally cash as their preferred rewards, according to Chicago-based research firm Mintel International Inc.

Retailers say there is a fundamental problem in the way credit card programs are funded. They foot the entire bill but they do not derive all the benefits and say they have no ability to negotiate the rates.

That’s because merchant "swipe" fees are based largely on something called the "interchange rate."

"I can tell you, without a doubt, that all of the credit cards that come with rewards programs are fully paid for by the merchants," says Diane Brisebois, president of the Retail Council of Canada. The council estimates such fees now cost merchants $4.5 billion a year, or roughly 2 per cent of the value of every purchase Faxless payday loans. That amounts to nearly $400 per household, assuming these costs are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

The Bank of Canada concluded credit cards have become the most expensive form of payment for merchants. The average debit card transaction costs 12 cents, but a credit card transaction costs 2 to 4 per cent of the value of the sale, according to the central bank.

Credit card companies say interchange keeps the system running smoothly. In a two-way network, where both sides have to agree to participate, it ensures banks have an incentive to issue cards to consumers, and merchants have an incentive to accept them, they say.

The fee is collected by the merchant’s bank and paid to the cardholder’s bank to compensate the card issuer for the cost of bringing cardholders into the system, the credit card companies say.

"Interchange is determined by MasterCard and makes up part of the fee paid by the merchant," Kevin Stanton, president of MasterCard Canada, told a Senate committee hearing earlier this year.

Merchants and small business owners say the system encourages a weird form of reverse competition in which credit card companies compete for the banks’ business by raising the interchange rate at the merchants’ expense.

This wasn’t a problem as long as merchants felt the rates were reasonable and negotiable, Brisebois says. That’s no longer the case.

Ever since most of Canada’s banks outsourced their merchant-acquiring business to third parties, it’s been a lot tougher for merchants to strike deals on credit card processing fees.

"The merchant used to deal directly with the branch manager of their bank. The merchant could negotiate with the manager, who wanted to keep the merchant’s banking business," Brisebois explains.

The situation took a turn for the worse after the credit card companies fiddled with their interchange rate structure and introduced a new class of "premium" cards. After years of relatively steady, predictable fees, both Visa and MasterCard expanded the number and kind of rates retailers pay from two or three rates to between 19 and 21.

The new premium cards, such as Visa’s Infinite card, come with more perks for consumers but cost merchants more to accept.

Retailers say these cards now represent 25 per cent of the value of all transactions and have a huge and unpredictable impact on the fees they face at the end of the month.

The bankers’ association says premium cards represent just 9 per cent of their credit card accounts and benefit the merchant by bringing in higher net worth customers.

Industry experts, such as Andrew Davidson of Mintel International Inc., say premium cards were created to offset banks’ rising loan losses during the economic downturn.

Add in other interchange changes and these new premium cards helped boost processing fees more than 10 per cent for Visa and nearly 20 per cent for MasterCard in the 12-month period ending last February, retailers say.

The credit card companies dispute the retailers’ figures, saying they have raised rates for some types of transactions and lowered them for others so the overall impact is neutral. The retail council says the new rates are designed to boost credit card use in grocery stores, gas stations and coffee shops where consumers prefer to use cash or debit.

Initially, credit cards were cheaper than cash or cheques and had the added benefit of reducing the risk of theft, says Andrew Ching, a marketing professor at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management. Now, with the market saturated, banks began to use their reward programs to compete for market share, and to penetrate under-represented markets, such as grocery and gas.

Fishman, the points-collecting camp director, shrugs off retailer complaints. She accepts credit card payments from clients. "It’s just another cost of doing business."

Source

November 28, 2009

Five questions: Free-spending may be in the past

Filed under: marketing — Tags: , , — Professor Besto @ 8:12 pm

Retailers are praying that holiday sales will finally turn around after two hard years. Last year was terrible, with the downfall of well-known retail chains such as Circuit City and Linens ‘n Things. This year hasn’t been much better.

But the near-term outlook doesn’t appear positive to Robert Buchanan, assistant professor of finance at St. Louis University. He sees glum sales through the first half of next year. And Buchanan doesn’t expect consumers to return to their free-spending ways in the long run.

Unlike many academics, Buchanan hasn’t been confined to an ivory tower. He spent 23 years in equity research, scrutinizing the financial statements and strategies of retailers. Before turning to teaching, he was vice president and Retailing Industry Research Group leader at A.G Edwards.

Yet, he didn’t start in equity research. He had been a journalist, working for wire service United Press International.

"There is a lot of commonality between a good reporter and a good analyst," Buchanan says.

How do you project this year’s holiday season to be, compared to 2008?

I think it is going to be a slow Christmas. If you look at the industry, it is certainly not depressed, but I think the industry is in slow spirits. What we’ve been seeing is same-store sales growth in the -1, -2 percent area throughout the year. I think that trend will continue through the holiday, and certainly into the first half of next year.

There are two reasons, number one is the debt — personal, corporate and government debt. Debt has become an acute problem for individuals.

Second thing has to do with the stock market. The total returns for the stock market during the 26 years ending with 2007, they ran right around 13 percent per year (which made consumers richer). … My suspicion is that kind of super market will not apply during the next 26 years.

What would be your advice for retailers this season?

A lot of them are acting very intelligently, starting with Walmart and individual retailers like Nordstrom, Kohl’s, Target, Costco cheap payday loan. What they are doing is smart, they have cut way back on their inventory levels and their expense levels. Those retailers in particular are positioned to make decent a return even if the sales stay slow.

A number of retail companies filed for bankruptcy in the past year. How will this affect retailers in the long run?

I think the days of heady growth for American retailers are over. Moving forward, the game is going to be about the market share. … A given retailer has to punch another retailer in the nose to take their market share away in order to survive. It has become and will remain a ruthless Darwinian struggle.

Do you think the recession has marked the death of customers?

My hunch is that (for) the high end of American retailing, like Neiman Marcus, Saks Fifth Avenue and parts of Nordstrom, the customer mindset … has permanently changed.

I think the days of freewheeling spending are over, particularly at the high end. It never made a whole lot of sense for someone to spend $2,000 on a business bag, for example, and yet, people did anyway … I think now it absolutely makes no sense. Frugality is the word.

If I am wrong about the (stock) market, and the stock market goes on a sustained (strong growth) for the next 26 years, then people might go back on spending $4,500 on a handbag.

What do you think will be the state of retail business over the next 20 years?

I think strong and superior value propositions will carry the day. To me, the best retailing concept in the world … is Costco’s.

Most typical retailers are working anywhere between a 30 percent to 60 percent mark up (on) the cost of their merchandise; Costco is working anywhere between a 10 to 15 percent markup. They don’t carry everything, they only have about 4,000 items at one point in time versus 150,000 items at a Walmart super center. But what they have … is very sharply priced.

Source

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